tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post1482989513935412131..comments2023-10-19T22:49:15.517+01:00Comments on Ulster's Doomed!: Dodds, the DUP, and desperationHorsemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16655806346968204169noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-5333742930379448642009-01-02T03:20:00.000+00:002009-01-02T03:20:00.000+00:00RE: North Belfast By-ElectionDid Dodds' majority n...RE: North Belfast By-Election<BR/><BR/>Did Dodds' majority not INCREASE in 2005?<BR/><BR/>Also, would the UUP field a candidate in this by-election? The TUV have already made clear that they won't contest Westminster elections in this constituency.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-8583451287018962562008-12-19T18:21:00.000+00:002008-12-19T18:21:00.000+00:00Hi Kensei,Yes, that would also have been useful, b...Hi Kensei,<BR/><BR/>Yes, that would also have been useful, but I thought people would be able to mentally combine the graph on percentages at each age with the actual numbers at each age, to get my point. I could, I suppose, make a composite graph, and maybe factor in the age-specific mortality rate to work out exactly when Dodds runs out of rope! However, North Belfast is an urban constituency, so migration is a much bigger factor than in some other areas, and is entirely unknowable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-49730377239713141602008-12-19T11:53:00.000+00:002008-12-19T11:53:00.000+00:00Hello. I would suggest another graph. You need to ...Hello. I would suggest another graph. You need to combine the percentage age figures along with the frequency figures: there may be 50% more Protestant 90 years, but this might only be two people.<BR/><BR/>Not 100% the best way to do this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-67637896818667696832008-12-17T17:12:00.000+00:002008-12-17T17:12:00.000+00:00The figures on a local authority basis are release...The figures on a local authority basis are released here (Wales).Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-49864905340627392442008-12-16T19:38:00.000+00:002008-12-16T19:38:00.000+00:00menaiblog,No, not as far as I know. The Electoral ...menaiblog,<BR/><BR/>No, not as far as I know. The Electoral Office publish the results for the whole constituency (i.e. NI as a whole). If they have more details they keep them for themselves, and maybe academic researchers. It might be interesting to ask them for them after the election. I'll keep it in mind.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-29965855072364478492008-12-16T19:11:00.000+00:002008-12-16T19:11:00.000+00:00As a matter of interest are local (ie unitary auth...As a matter of interest are local (ie unitary authority level ) voting results released in Northern Ireland after European elections?Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-42273508597093181572008-12-16T12:15:00.000+00:002008-12-16T12:15:00.000+00:00Thanks for the positive feedback!It's hard to judg...Thanks for the positive feedback!<BR/><BR/>It's hard to judge what the effect of the boundary change will be, but Nicholas Whyte has calculated that it will slightly increase the proportion of Catholics in North Belfast: "This makes the new constituency 0.2% more Catholic, and 0.3% less Protestant than the old. The electoral effects will be minimal."<BR/><BR/>North Belfast is, like most urban areas, subject to more rapid changes than rural areas, so who knows? There are a LOT of older Protestants (or at least there WERE in 2001), so as these die the balance may shift. The younger people are majority Catholic, but will they stay in North Belfast?<BR/><BR/>Hopefully we'll see soon. Brown is still dithering over his date of execution!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-28048234988653277172008-12-16T09:25:00.000+00:002008-12-16T09:25:00.000+00:00'...the DUP's increasingly precarious hold on Nort...'...the DUP's increasingly precarious hold on North Belfast. The constituency has been approaching parity between nationalists and unionists for some time, and in the absence of a big name like Dodds there is no guarantee that the DUP would hold it at the next general election.'<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure about that. Wasn't there a small gain for Unionism in the redrawing of the constituency boundaries? Anyway, too many Catholics can't bring themselves to vote for Gerry Kelly. Alban McGuinness will always get a reasonable vote and a Nationalist gain is a long, long way off in North Belfast. <BR/><BR/>Thanks again for the DEA profiles - great work and clearly presented.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com