tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post2695984878497399742..comments2023-10-19T22:49:15.517+01:00Comments on Ulster's Doomed!: Banbridge District Council By-Election – Dromore DEA, 13 February 2008 – the resultHorsemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16655806346968204169noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-67349131368331220792008-02-28T10:44:00.000+00:002008-02-28T10:44:00.000+00:00What you say may come to pass, but three years is ...What you say may come to pass, but three years is a long long time in politics, and the TUV may go up, down, or defunct, by 2011. However, even assuming more or less the same level of support, the 14.3% of the vote needed for a seat refers only to the first round of an STV count. We do not yet know how many transfers the TUV might get (they were the first unionists excluded in Dromore, so there is no way of knowing if they were No 2 on the DUP ballots). Assuming at least a proportion of the DUP, and even UUP, voters transfer to a TUV candidate, they may actually end up with more seats than you estimated.<BR/><BR/>The UUP certainly have nothing to crow about. Their share of the vote dropped yet again, and they retained the seat by pure luck. If their result is extrapolated, then they are facing virtual extinction - the remnants may be mopped up by Alliance, or they simply stop voting.<BR/><BR/>Your point about 2011 is interesting. How indeed can the DUP go into one of their typical anti-nationalist election campaigns if they are in a long-standing coalition with Sinn Féin? It would give the TUV an easy target. On the other hand, how can they collapse the Executive without getting the blame? I guess that 'dark forces' are already planning the necessary 'IRA atrocity' that will give them an excuse. However, they will have to face elections in 2009, and perhaps 2010 too, in the same circumstances. The DUP is going to need some fancy footwork, but I suspect that they will mess it up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-43362576275787527902008-02-27T19:51:00.000+00:002008-02-27T19:51:00.000+00:00There are several important conclusions that can b...There are several important conclusions that can be drawn from this election in Dromore. The first is that 40% of DUP voters have abandoned the DUP for the TUV and the TUV received 27% of the total Unionist vote. If this election were to be extrapolated to the 2011 Assembly election the TUV would receive the following vote:<BR/>East Derry: 16.2%<BR/>North Antrim: 18.8%<BR/>East Antrim: 19.0%<BR/>South Antrim: 15.4%<BR/>North Down: 19.2%<BR/>Strangford: 19.4%<BR/>East Belfast: 19.2%<BR/>Lagan Valley: 19.2%<BR/>North Belfast: 13.8%<BR/>South Belfast: 11.3%<BR/>Upper Bann: 16.2%<BR/>Fermanagh-SouthTyrone 13.2%<BR/> Since a vote of 14.3% is required for one seat the TUV would win 9 seats with 2 more possible in North Belfast and Fermanagh-SouthTyrone. Due to Boundary Commission changes there will be 3 SDLP or SF pickups in East Antrim, Strangford and South Down and the SDLP would win a seat in West Tyrone if they stand only 2 candidates instead of 3. The Unionist parties will be in a minority after the 2011 Assembly election and the DUP will have fewer than 25 seats. This will result in a SF First Minister.<BR/> Another conclusion is that the UUP continues its decline, dropping 6% from the 2005 Dromore election.The total Unionist vote also declined from 80% in 2005 to 72%. The Alliance and Green vote was 11% compared to only 4% in 1997, the only other election in which the Alliance Party contested in Dromore. This indicates that moderate and liberal Protestants in the UUP are abandoning the UUP for Alliance and the Greens. <BR/> Another disturbing trend for the Unionists is the fact that the nationalist vote appears to be the same as in 2005 ( 20% ): 17% for SF and the SDLP and probably 3% that went for Alliance and the Greens. There was absolutely no reason for any nationalist voter to vote in this election, whereas there was intense competition among the 3 unionist parties with much at stake. The fact that the nationalist voters turned out, even though their was no hope of victory for the SF or SDLP candidates, is a worrisome sign for the unionist parties.<BR/> The DUP is aware of all this and will not contest the 2011 Assembly election while sharing power with Sinn Fein. They will either collapse the Assembly prior to the 2011 election or attempt to negotiate an end to mandatory power sharing. Only time will tell which stategy they will pursue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com