tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post6185957539658189702..comments2023-10-19T22:49:15.517+01:00Comments on Ulster's Doomed!: The 'west' – 40 years a-greeningHorsemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16655806346968204169noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-24570564214257936622010-06-05T23:57:02.313+01:002010-06-05T23:57:02.313+01:00Sammy Mc Nally said,
Colm, something I have been ...Sammy Mc Nally said,<br /><br />Colm, something I have been annoying Horseman about for some time is the fact that there is no attempt to work out the relative turnouts by community background. The last Westminsters saw a bit of a change from the norm with seemingly much greater falls in the Nationalist turnout rates than the Unioinst rates - and with East Belfast actually having a higher turnout rate than West Belfast. I appreciate that there would need to be quite a bit of extrapolation but I find it puzling that no one with a bit of statistical knowledge (unlike myself), plenty of interest and dare I say it a suitable coat for keeping out the rain (anorak) doesn't have at least a stab at it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-33098170735706352822010-06-05T23:29:25.763+01:002010-06-05T23:29:25.763+01:00Colm,
Adams machine didn't get the vote out i...Colm,<br /><br />Adams machine didn't get the vote out in Lagmore and Black's road. Another advantage that the Unionists have is that their electorate is a lot older. Older people tend to be better voters.<br /><br />I think it's fair to say that Catholics are likely to be a majority of the population in the WM Belfast boundaries while not haveing a large majority in the votes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-7488698194742642172010-06-04T20:05:34.844+01:002010-06-04T20:05:34.844+01:00Ivan said...
Colm,
How are you factoring in the 1...<i>Ivan said... <br />Colm,<br />How are you factoring in the 17,000 odd Alliance votes?</i><br /><br />Ivan,<br />Alliance got over 20,000 votes in Belfast (15% of those cast) which would obviously need to be considered before coming to an accurate conclusion on whether Belfast has become Nationalist.<br /><br />I omitted Alliance votes from my calculation on Unionist -vs- Nationalist for a number of reasons:<br />- Alliance are neutral on the Union<br />- The Alliance voter profile has developed in complexity since their early 'light unionist' days<br />- The election results give no indication of preferences beyond first<br />- The assumption that Unionists vote for Unionist parties and Nationalists vote for Nationalist parties is the best indicator available<br /><br />Caveats on the real Unionist/Nationalist proportions will continue to exist until a definitive answer becomes available in a border poll. <br /><br />For example, it could be assumed that most of Naomi Long's 12,839 votes came from the Protestant community and would therefore vote for the Union. However, 7.5% of the people in East Belfast are Catholic. If they voted in a similar proportion to Protestants, over 2,500 Catholics voted in East Belfast. Just over 1,000 votes were cast on Nationalist parties. So most of the other 1,500 probably went to Alliance. While this doesn't represent a huge part of Long's personal vote, it does indicate that Catholics in East Belfast were more likely to vote for Alliance than Nationalists. <br /><br />Following her victory, Naomi Long mentioned the votes she received from the Short Strand in particular as an indication of how she gets support from all sections of the community.<br /><br />The situation with Alliance voters in South Belfast is just as complex. The campaign of racist attacks on Chinese minorities in Unionist areas of South Belfast could indicate that the Alliance candidate, Anna Lo would find a more friendly welcome on the doorsteps in Nationalist areas. <br /><br />There was only one Nationalist candidate in South Belfast who is disliked by many Republicans. This could also have provided votes for Alliance.<br /><br />Another caveat is that of turnout by constituency. It has historically been the case that Nationalist constituencies have higher turnouts than Unionist. This was not the case in Belfast. West Belfast had the lowest turnout in the city, while East Belfast had the highest.<br /><br />I have given these as qualitative examples backing up my original statement that Belfast appears to be greening. There are many more factors that could be considered before the statement should be taken as one of fact.Colmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-68329410217999238962010-06-04T12:56:26.588+01:002010-06-04T12:56:26.588+01:00Colm,
Thats a good point and that is the new enla...Colm,<br /><br />Thats a good point and that is the new enlarged Belfast.Only a couple of wards up near the uu are not included. you could probably get those 5000 votes and a couple thousand more default unionist votes for long in EB.<br /><br />It however proves a myth to people like McCann and his ilk who claim that Belfast is only a Catholic city on the council area. one of the stories of the 2011 census could be the large growth in the Catholic population in Glengormley, SE Belfast and Carryduff. In the 2001 census there was already a noticeable Catholic majority among the children.<br /><br />John.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-55025321521934522402010-06-04T11:44:01.385+01:002010-06-04T11:44:01.385+01:00Colm,
How are you factoring in the 17,000 odd Al...Colm,<br /> How are you factoring in the 17,000 odd Alliance votes?Ivannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-76306055680026730182010-06-04T11:12:44.147+01:002010-06-04T11:12:44.147+01:00Good article Horseman, again.
You see a lot of fi...Good article Horseman, again.<br /><br />You see a lot of figures bandied about, but you do seem to take all factors into consideration.Dan The Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11390323391867822779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-72336179025810250512010-06-04T00:52:43.093+01:002010-06-04T00:52:43.093+01:00Good article Horseman.
I briefly looked into the ...Good article Horseman.<br /><br />I briefly looked into the most recent election results by region. One of the more interesting highlights was that Nationalism in Belfast outvoted Unionism by 5000. It seems the greening of the east is sprouting from the mouth of the Lagan.Colmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-29824960561524876112010-06-03T22:17:40.960+01:002010-06-03T22:17:40.960+01:00what is clear though, is the more stats are brough...what is clear though, is the more stats are brought up, the greater the dependence on a single statistic:<br /><br /><i>Irish republicanism over all others, 51% or however.</i><br /><br />Good luck with those extrapolations horse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com