tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post7088408606897890458..comments2023-10-19T22:49:15.517+01:00Comments on Ulster's Doomed!: The European Election dilemmaHorsemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16655806346968204169noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-79877410575838644262008-04-30T09:39:00.000+00:002008-04-30T09:39:00.000+00:00FAHA,I don't think that there will be as many as 2...FAHA,<BR/><BR/>I don't think that there will be as many as 200,000 new 'ethnic minority' voters in Northern Ireland in 2011. Extrapolating from what might be a peak year for in-migration (I use this term deliberately rather than immigration, which has overtones of permanence) may over-estimate the numbers over a longer period. We are already seeing a reverse flow, particularly of Poles. This may intensify as the Polish economy improves; and there is no reason to doubt a similar effect with Lithuanians, etc.<BR/><BR/>However, even a small number of 'new' voters could influence the outcome quite dramatically. As you correctly point out, the natural increase in the electorate is largely Catholic, so the unionist/nationalist gap will close even more. Unfortunately, though, younger voters (majority Catholic) are less likely to vote than older voters (majority Protestant). The 'new' EU citizen voters are mostly Catholic, but not in Northern Ireland's tribal sense. They may, however, be alienated by the obvious anti-Catholicism of unionism. I expect that unionism will try to moderate its natural bigotry in the run-up to 2009. More importantly, though, the EU citizens know that their existence in Northern Ireland is a direct result of their countries membership of the EU, and they are likely to be pro-EU as a result. Here the natural EU-scepticism (or downright hostility) of many unionists may turn them off. The nationalist parties have a good opportunity to capitalise on these new voters if they portray themselves unequivocally pro-EU. SF seems to be somewhat equivocal, so there is a possibility here for the SDLP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-8313285206742058622008-04-28T14:51:00.000+00:002008-04-28T14:51:00.000+00:00Horseman, Next year's European election shou...Horseman,<BR/> Next year's European election should prove very interesting. I am expecting an increase over the usual turnout since there will be an additional unionist candidate ( TUV ) and an additional nationalist candidate <BR/>( Fianna Fail ). In the final count in 2004 the SDLP lost by 38,527 votes. However, there were 7,221 undistributed Sinn Fein votes so the actual gap would have been 31,300 votes. In looking at the electorate demographics(those reaching the age of 18 minus the death rate ) there will be a net of 50,000 new nationalist voters and 15,000 new unionist voters by 2009 compared to 2004. However, only 40% of those will actually vote in the European election. Nevertheless, the unionist nationalist gap will narrow to 18,000. You had some interesting statistics under your <BR/>"baby boom " post. If you look at the birth statistics for 2007 almost half of the extra births ( compared to 2001 ) originate from mothers who where not born in the UK or Ireland. While a small number of these mothers are of Irish origin ( ie: born in Canada, the U.S.A., etc.) most are non Irish immigrants. Since over 7% of births are now from non-Irish mothers this indicates there are 120,000 non Irish immigrants ( EU nationals, etc. ) in Northern Ireland. If you look at the recent <BR/>" Black and Minority Ethnic and Migrant Worker Update " released by the Northern Ireland Housing Executive" in Belfast you will see that these immigrants are arrivng at a rate of 25,000 per year. If the SDLP and Sinn Fein are able to persuade even 15% of those to vote, then the the UUP will lose their seat. Yes, Peter Robinson is worried, and rightfully so. By the 2011 Assembly and District Council elections there will be over 200,000 ethnic voters and they will hold the balance of power . Ironically, Sinn Fein and the SDLP insist on power sharing in the Assembly and District Councils when such a strategy only benefits the unionist minority.<BR/><BR/> FAHAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com