tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post7517035017944031717..comments2023-10-19T22:49:15.517+01:00Comments on Ulster's Doomed!: Reducing the number of MLAs, reduxHorsemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16655806346968204169noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-24883594818362695912009-05-01T21:27:00.000+00:002009-05-01T21:27:00.000+00:00Horseman,
the tipping point for quite a few seats...Horseman,<br /><br />the tipping point for quite a few seats seems to me be the elections after next in 2016 - I'm not sure what work you have done on this but the impact the increase in the Nationalist vote may have if the seats are reduced in 2016 may vary from 2011.<br />When do you think there will be an equal number of Nationalists in the assembly - this will be a critical morale and practical blow for Unionism when and if it arrives.ItwasSammyMcNallyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02692698717494553430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-70923886118932361682009-04-30T15:12:00.000+00:002009-04-30T15:12:00.000+00:00Anonymous,
43% in 2011 is not disappointing at al...<B>Anonymous</B>,<br /><br />43% in 2011 is not disappointing at all, when you look at the trend. It is constantly moving upwards (39.7% in 1998, 40.7% in 2003, and 42.6% in 2007). A gain by nationalism of over 3% in 13 years, bringing it to barely 4% less than unionism, means that (statistically at any rate), nationalism should outpoll unionism within about a decade after 2011. My own estimate is a nationalist majority (or at least a plurality) in the 2020s. This has always been my position (I'm not a 2016-ista).<br /><br />Demographic changes are not things that happen overnight, but in the long-term this is rapid change. If you look back at where we were a generation ago, and try to imagine here we'll be in an other generation, it's pretty revolutionary. If I were a unionist I'd start to plan for this, rather than pretending it won't happen.Horsemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-52727898830541057872009-04-30T14:22:00.000+00:002009-04-30T14:22:00.000+00:00Very good piece. One question: given your predicti...Very good piece. One question: given your predictions of a nationalist majority don't you think that a nationalist tally of 43% of the seats in a 2011 Assembly election is, well, disappointing? When will see the nationalist surge anticipated in your demographic pieces?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com