tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post7995316131209832853..comments2023-10-19T22:49:15.517+01:00Comments on Ulster's Doomed!: Upper Bann – one to watchHorsemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16655806346968204169noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-49243689074660360732010-03-30T19:55:03.468+00:002010-03-30T19:55:03.468+00:00Anonymous at 30 March 2010 19:39,
I think you'...<b>Anonymous</b> at 30 March 2010 19:39,<br /><br />I think you're right about SB in the medium-term, but at least in 2010 it is still a unionist-plurality seat. Next time, though, who knows.<br /><br />Yes, UB and NB are also possible gains for nationalism in the medium (or short?) term. Don't overlook South Antrim - not this time, or even next, but its demographics are also changing fast and will continue to. It is less nationalist at present than East Derry, but will probably evolve faster. However, there may end up being significant boundary changes before either SA or ED 'turn', and that may change things entirely. The long-term is definitely a foreign country!Horsemannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-38898767057752080862010-03-30T19:39:52.041+00:002010-03-30T19:39:52.041+00:00Congratulations horseman on an informative blog. J...Congratulations horseman on an informative blog. Just some observations and questions for you on demographics. Firstly you talked about South Belfast as being a borrowed seat but surely this constituency has seen the greatest demographic change in the last 30 years as a result of an influx of affluent nationalists aswell as an increased nationalist student population so even if a unionist takes the seat back in 2010 I think you will find it will be nationalist again very soon. I agree with your analysis of North Belfast and Upper Bann but do feel they will be safe Unionist seats for the forseeable future unless the SDLP or SF have a complete collapse in their vote at the expense of the other Nationalist party.<br />Finally what are your thoughts for the future - If South Belfast, North Belfast and Upper Bann are Nationalist with the exception of maybe east londonderry surely the remaining consitituencies will remain unioist indefinitley - unless your aware of any other major demographic change elsewhere.<br />Look forward to hearing your thoughts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-16368094567837534552010-03-25T12:53:24.362+00:002010-03-25T12:53:24.362+00:00"I can't understand why there are so many..."I can't understand why there are so many parties in N.I.?"<br /><br />I've never understood why the unionists in Northern Ireland don't have the usual British parties as their typical slate... in particular, the Tories. I can see why none of them would appeal to nationalists and why they'd want things like SF and the SDLP, but why would unionists need special parties of their own? Doesn't that just isolate them from the vast body of people they otherwise claim to belong to?Paddy Canuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13845416342614243491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-87166430794882077882010-03-25T10:33:45.773+00:002010-03-25T10:33:45.773+00:00http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/UUP-in-surprise-j...http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/UUP-in-surprise-justice-move.6179394.jphoboroadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01474379737795624096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-47013046248084068422010-03-25T04:56:58.232+00:002010-03-25T04:56:58.232+00:00I can't understand why there are so many parti...I can't understand why there are so many parties in N.I.? Given the danger of vote splitting in so communally divided an area and the first past the post system it is very odd.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1062377461026943825.post-80123593283394651862010-03-24T11:08:49.277+00:002010-03-24T11:08:49.277+00:00http://news.scotsman.com/politics/SNP-Scots-39subs...http://news.scotsman.com/politics/SNP-Scots-39subsidise-the-rest.5992533.jphoboroadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01474379737795624096noreply@blogger.com