More on the superannuated hard men

A few days ago this blog observed that the men and women arrested in connection with dissident republican activities are frequently rather old for militants. It seems that the mainstream media has also noticed this. Yesterday's News Letter had the following to say in relation to a list of 30 dissident suspects being especially targeted by the PSNI:

The officer, who made the revelation to the News Letter, said although there has been a list of around 10 suspected dissidents in circulation to officers for months, the numbers have swelled to more than 30 in the last eight weeks.

He added that the majority of men – and one woman – on the list are in their 40s.

[…]

"When the mail came out a lot of us recognised the names, and out of the 30-plus there were no teenagers. The youngest was around 30 and the oldest near pension age. These suspected dissidents are mainly mature men from all walks of life. Quite a few of the men are in their late 30s and 40s," he said.

These are, of course, the 'main players' – the total number of dissidents under observation is around 200, and presumably some of the smaller fish are younger than the leaders. But nonetheless, it is interesting to note that the prime movers in dissident republican circles are 'new blood'.

If dissident republican politics follows dissident republic military activism, the risk to the Sinn Féin political strategy would appear to be small. The noise being made about dissident republican inroads into Sinn Féin's support base would not appear to be borne out, and this leaves Sinn Féin with a certain amount of leeway to pursue its political goals. The dissidents are not posing the kind of threat to Sinn Féin that the TUV is posing to the DUP.

Centenaries

The speech by Nelson McCausland at the recent DUP conference referred to a number of upcoming anniversaries that are of importance to unionism:

"Republicans have been looking forward to a centenary in 2016 but Ulstermen should also be looking forward to a centenary and in fact they should be looking forward to a decade of centenaries.

I think of 2012 and the 100th anniversary of the Ulster Covenant, the document that has become known as the ‘birth certificate of Northern Ireland’. It is a document that was inspired by the old Scottish covenants and it is a document that was written almost 100 years ago but the great principles that are embedded in it are still as relevant today as they were then and they will still be relevant tomorrow.

The centenary of the Ulster Covenant is just three years away and we are duty bound to prepare for it.

[…] 2012 is only the start of that decade of anniversaries. We will also come to 2016, the centenary of that year when on 1 July so many of the Sons of Ulster fell at the Battle of the Somme. Over 9,000 men from the Ulster Division took part in that attack on 1 July and only 2,500 were able to answer the roll call on 3 July. In the House of Commons on 10 July Asquith said that Ulster, through its troops on the Somme, ‘had covered itself with undying fame’.

Yes we have a decade of centenaries, from 2012 through to 2021, the centenary of Northern Ireland."

McCausland should be a little bit more circumspect – the next decade or so does contain a lot of anniversaries – an awful lot. And anniversaries have a habit of stirring things up, and restarting old grievances.

Between now and a half-generation into the future – about the time the nationalist vote will start consistently exceeding the unionist vote in Northern Ireland – a lot of centenaries will take place, each one rekindling either a sense of pride or a sense of grievance. As the arguments about each event restart, many people will rediscover their interest in the constitutional history of their little patch of Ireland. Just as the 50 year anniversary of 1916 in 1966 is credited with reawakening an interest in the national question in a new generation, so will many of the anniversaries listed below. But for McCausland and his political movement, an increasing interest in the national question amongst the increasing number of young Catholics in Northern Ireland can only be a bad thing.

Some dates for our diaries:

1912

• 11 April: The Third Home Rule Bill is introduced in the British Parliament. It is passed by the House of Commons but rejected by the House of Lords. Because of the Parliament Act 1911 the House of Lords has lost its power to veto legislation and can only delay a bill for two years.
• 9 April: Major review of the original Ulster Volunteer militias (approximately 100,000 men)
• 28 September: ‘Ulster Day’ – over five hundred thousand Unionists sign the Ulster Covenant pledging to defy Home Rule by all means possible.
• May: In Clonmel the Irish Labour Party, which is intended to represent the workers in the imminent Home Rule Bill parliament; is formed.

1913

• 13 January: The Ulster Volunteer Force is formally established by the Ulster Unionist Council.
• 25 November: Nationalists establish the Irish Volunteers, whose aim is to ensure the imposition of home rule, with their first public meeting and enrolment in Dublin.
• August: Not immediately relevant to the national question (but to become so), the Dublin Lock-out lasts from 26 August 1913 to 18 January 1914, and leads to the creation of the Irish Citizen Army (ICA), a small group of trained trade union volunteers established in Dublin for the defence of worker’s demonstrations from the police.

1914

• 20 March: Curragh Mutiny.
• 24 April: Larne gun-running.
• 25 May: Home Rule Bill is passed by the House of Commons.
• 26 July: Howth gun-running.
• 28 July: Start of WW1 as Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia.
• 4 August: The United Kingdom enters World War I. This involves Ireland in the conflict.
• 18 September: Home Rule Act receives Royal Assent but is suspended by the British government for the duration of the war.

1915

• 29 June: Death of veteran Fenian Jeremiah O'Donovan Rossa. His funeral at Glasnevin Cemetery on 1 August 1915 is a huge affair, garnering substantial publicity for the Irish Volunteers and the IRB at the time when a rebellion (later to emerge as the Easter Rising) was being planned. The graveside oration, given by Pádraig Pearse, remains one of the most famous speeches of the Irish independence movement. It ends with the lines: "They think that they have pacified Ireland. They think that they have purchased half of us and intimidated the other half. They think that they have foreseen everything, think that they have provided against everything; but, the fools, the fools, the fools! — They have left us our Fenian dead, and while Ireland holds these graves, Ireland unfree shall never be at peace."

1916

• 24-30 April: Easter Rising.
  Between 3–12 May, fifteen of the leaders of the Easter Rising are executed by firing squad;
• 3 May: Padraig Pearse
• 3 May: Tom Clark
• 3 May: Thomas MacDonagh
• 4 May: Willie Pearse
• 4 May: Joseph Mary Plunkett
• 4 May: Edward "Ned" Daly
• 4 May: Michael O'Hanrahan
• 5 May: John MacBride
• 8 May: Éamonn Ceannt
• 8 May: Michael Mallin
• 8 May: Conn Colbert
• 8 May: Seán Heuston
• 12 May: James Connolly
• 12 May: Seán Mac Diarmada
• 1 July: Start of the battle of the Somme.
• 3 August: Execution of Roger Casement

1917

• July 1917 until March 1918: Irish Convention

1918

• 5 March 1918: Second attempt to introduce Home Rule failed at the end of the Irish Convention, when agreement on the exclusion or inclusion of Ulster cannot be reached. However, the British cabinet decides to implement Home Rule combined with the introduction of conscription.
• 16 April: Military Service (Ireland) Bill passes into law.
• 18 April: Irish Anti-Conscription Committee began planning opposition.
• 23 April: General strike in protest against conscription
• 11 November: Armistice
• 14 December: General election – Sinn Féin wins a landslide victory, gaining 73 out of 105 Irish seats in the British Parliament.

1919

• 21 January: Establishment of Dáil Éireann and declaration of independence from the United Kingdom.
• 21 January: Start of War of Independence.
• 1 April: Éamon de Valera is elected President of Dáil Éireann, appoints a cabinet, anddeclares that "There is in Ireland at this moment only one lawful authority, and that authority is the elected Government of the Irish Republic".
• 17 May: Members of Dáil Éireann send a letter to the head of the Paris Peace Conference, repudiating Britain's claim to speak for Ireland.
• 12 September: The British government outlaws Dáil Éireann.

1920

• 20 May: Start of strikes and refusal by Dublin dock workers to handle British war material, joined by members of the Irish Transport and General Workers Union.
• 21/24 July: In Belfast, loyalists force an estimated 10,000 Catholics and socialists from their jobs. Severe riots follow, in which at least twenty-one were killed and hundreds are forced from their homes.
• 21 November: Bloody Sunday – in Dublin, a total of 31 people are killed – in the morning, the IRA assassinate 14 British agents. In the afternoon, British troops storm a Gaelic football match and shoot dead 14 Irish civilians. In the evening, three IRA prisoners are shot dead by their British captors.
• 11 December: The Black and Tans set fire to the centre of Cork, destroying over five acres and causing £20 million worth of damage.
• 23 December: The British parliament approves the Government of Ireland Act 1920.

1921

• 3 May: Government of Ireland Act comes into effect, establishing Northern Ireland and thus partitioning the island.
• 25 May: IRA occupy and burn the Custom House in Dublin.
• 28 November: Tyrone County Council pledged allegiance to Dáil Éireann. Eight smaller public bodies followed. That same day a bill is introduced in Stormont which allowed it to dissolve any local authority. Offices of Tyrone Council are raided by the RIC.
• 6 December: Representatives of Dáil Éireann and the British Parliament sign the Anglo-Irish Treaty in London.
• 15 December: Fermanagh County Council pledged allegiance to Dáil Éireann. After the meeting the RIC take over the council chamber.

1922

• 7 January: Dáil Éireann narrowly approves the Anglo-Irish Treaty by a vote of 64 to 57.
• 14 January: Provisional Government is established to oversee the treaty's implementation.
• 28 March: Executive of the IRA issues a statement repudiating the treaty and the Provisional Government.
• 14 April: Anti-Treaty forces take control of the Four Courts building in Dublin.
• 28 June: Provisional Government bombards the Anti-Treaty forces occupying the Four Courts, marking the beginning of the Civil War.
• 6 December: Irish Free State was officially established. Northern Ireland withdrew the following day.

1923

• 30 April: Frank Aiken (Anti-Treaty commander) called a ceasefire.
• 24 May: Frank Aiken ordered the Anti-Treaty forces to "dump their arms" and end their campaign. There is no formal surrender or settlement.

In between all of these events there are literally hundreds of others - First World War exploits to be trumpetted by one side, Black and Tan atrocities to be denounced by the other. The only thing that is certain is that a lot more history will be written about, and read, in the next half-generation, and that the effect will be unpredictable.

McCausland may live to regret his glee at the centenaries to come.

Robinson Wordle

Peter Robinson's Leader's Speech at the DUP Conference on Saturday can be summarised in a word cloud:

Those who accuse the DUP of being an 'Ulster Nationalist' party (including, of course, this blog) will be interested to see that the two most commonly used words were 'Northern' and 'Ireland', with 'Britain' occurring even less than 'Dublin' (though 'British' outscored 'Irish'). The obsession with Sinn Féin is noticeably less than in Jim Allister's Leader's Speech a few weeks back. Just like Allister, though, Robinson made no reference whatsoever to his partners-in-government, the SDLP.

Personality cult(ivation)

There are fully seven images of Peter Robinson on the DUP website today:

What are they trying to do? Do they think that Robinson has the kind of star appeal that their previous leader had? Putting all of their eggs in one basket may turn out to be a risky strategy if Robinson falters – and it gives the impression that the DUP is a one-man-band (like the TUV).

Could it be a reaction to the increasing lack of loyalty being shown by some of the other DUP front-benchers, as pointed out by Brian Feeney in the Irish News on Wednesday?

"Did you spot the gap last week? The gap in the DUP between Peter Robinson and the rest of the party’s elected representatives at Westminster and Stormont?"

In the kerfuffle about the full-time reserve no-one backed Robinson. Not a word."

"It’s noticeable that Robinson has no sidekick, never had. Last week he was conspicuously the Lone Ranger."

It seems that the reluctance of his colleagues to stand by him is being reciprocated by Robinson, who is visibly hogging the limelight on the DUP web site. Are the strains in the DUP starting to show?

Superannuated hard men

The media has reported the arrests of numerous people recently in connection with the murders of PSNI Constable Carroll, two British soldiers, and yesterday's attempted mortar attack in Armagh.

What is remarkable about many of those arrested (and in many cases, it should be noted, released without charges) is their age.

Amongst the men arrested in connection with the Constable Carroll murder were:

• Brendan McConville, age 37
• a 17-year-old youth
• two men, aged 27 and 31, who were being questioned in connection with the murder were released without charge

Amongst the 14 people arrested in connection with the murders of the two British solders were:

• Colin Duffy, age 41
• Brian Shivers, age 44
• Marian Price, age 55
• A 39-year-old man from south Tyrone

And the man arrested in connection with yesterday's Armagh mortar find is 42.

During the hotter parts of the troubles the average age of activists was generally in their teens and 20s. It was relatively rare for men, or women, in their thirties or forties to be on "active service". The leaders – on both sides – were often only in their thirties.

So the very visible increase in the ages of many of the perceived activists of today is interesting. It shows that for some people in their 40s, at least, the 'war' is far from over. But it also implies that for those in the 'prime military age' the war is indeed over. The flood of young recruits that the IRA received during the 1970s and 1980s is not now being repeated for the dissidents. The only young recruit that the arrests show is the 17 year-old arrested in connection with Constable Carroll.

Despite the increasing number of young adult Catholics at present, the military urge seems to remain quite restrained amongst them, unlike amongst the smaller group of middle-aged Catholics. The implication would appear to be that the younger generation do not share the 'unfinished business' urge of their elders – in the military sense at any rate. This younger generation seems to have opted for Sinn Féin's strategy rather than that of the dissidents.

Please don't label me

The British Humanist Association is carrying out a billboard campaign to coincide with Universal Children's Day tomorrow, 20 November – the United Nations 'day of worldwide fraternity and understanding between children'. "Labelling children as if they innately "belong" to a particular religion, while ascribing incompatible beliefs to infants who "belong" to other religions, can only serve as an obstacle to understanding between children around the world" according to the humanists.

The poster can be seen on Great Victoria Street in Belfast, or for the rest of us, here:


Of course in Northern Ireland children (and even sheep) are routinely labelled as belonging to one religion or the other. The labels are tribal rather than religious, though. Few if any children have any idea what religion really is – and usually the adults doing the labelling are themselves hypocrites. Northern Ireland's religions are badges of ethno-political identity, and only a minority of adults actually adhere to the tenets of their so-called beliefs.

Nonetheless, it seems as if the humanists are a bit late to the game. Even at the time of the 2001 census many parents were declining to label their children. Look, for example at the graph below. It shows the percentage at each age group that were declared as belonging to one of the 'big three' religious groups in Northern Ireland – Catholic, 'Protestant/other Christian', and 'No religion/religion not stated' (Census table s306a). Apart from the obvious observation, that Catholics are more numerous than Protestants below the age of 27, another element stands out clearly – that below the age of 10 the proportion that are 'not labelled' increases dramatically.


Now those kids below 10 did not fill in their census forms themselves, so it is obvious that their parents are deliberately not labelling them – despite labelling themselves (look at the proportion of 'none/not stated' in the age group of the parents, i.e. between 30 and 45).

So a lot of parents in Northern Ireland – up to 25% - already did not label their kids in 2001. By 2009 this proportion has probably increased even further. Only when the results of the next census are released in about four years will we be able to see whether the unlabelled in 2001 grew up and gave themselves tribal labels, or if the trend seen in 2001 was really the start of a post-religious society.

Perceived corruption

Transparency International (TI), the leading international non-governmental organisation dedicated to fighting corruption throughout the world, has just published its Corruption Perceptions Index 2009.

The index, illustrated by the map above, measures the perceived level of public-sector corruption in 180 countries and territories around the world. The CPI is a "survey of surveys", based on 13 different expert and business surveys.

Ireland ranks as the 14th least corrupt public sector worldwide, an improvement of 3 places. The UK ranks 17th – and drops a place. In fact the UK has been slipping for a while – 11th in 2006, 12th in 2007, 16th in 2008, 17th in 2009 – while Ireland has been climbing up the ladder.

So yet again it appears that unionists have backed a losing horse. The difference between 13th and 17th place is not enormous, of course – Ireland scored 8.0 out of 10, while the UK scored 7.7. But this is an index of perceptions, and perceptions matter in areas like public confidence, investor confidence and international relations. A low and falling score can only mean a reduced confidence in the state to treat its citizens and its businesses fairly. When countries are competing for Foreign Direct Investment – or skilled immigrants – such things matter, and if investors are looking at the longer term, the year-on-year trends are also important.

So the UK is slipping down the scale, and coming perilously close to becoming an 'also-ran' in the corruption perception stakes. It is a far cry from the mythical British belief in 'fair play'.

Business people in the north – unionist or nationalist – should be conscious of the danger, and should carefully consider the consequences. Those who continue to describe themselves as unionists should not fool themselves that it is an economically rational choice, because it isn't.