First indications are that Sinn Féin won the by-election in The Glens (part of Moyle District), that was caused by the resignation of Marie McKeegan. Sinn Féin's own website says that Paudie McShane took 50% of the vote, a slight increase on their previous share.
Full details will be posted here once they are known.
Update (14 January 2008):
After a rather lengthy delay, the Electoral Office have finally posted the results of the Glens by-election. They were as follows:
McShane (Sinn Féin) - 881 (49,3%)
McCambridge (SDLP) - 569 (31,9%)
McCarry (Independent nationalist) - 336 (18,8%)
McCarry was then eliminated, and his votes transferred as follows:
McShane (Sinn Féin) - 113 (33,6%)
McCambridge (SDLP) - 154 (45,8%)
Non-transferrable - 69 (20,5%)
Leaving Paudie McShane the winner, with 994 votes, against McCambridge's 723.
This outcome shows three principal points. Firstly, the SDLP vote held steady- their 31,9% was almost exactly their share of the nationalist vote in 2005. Secondly, McCarry did not do particularly well - his share of the vote was only 2% higher than the share of the nationalist vote gained by Randal McDonnell in 2005. So no great evidence of an anti-Sinn Féin backlash. Lastly, Sinn Féin did all right, losing just 2% of the nationalist vote to McCarry - votes which should come back to it in the future, judging by the pattern of McCarry's transfers.
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1 comment:
I have read all of your posts and your statistical analysis is very fascinating. However, you are neglecting 2 important factors that will determine the strength of the nationalist parties vote in future elections. I will send you a long and detailed analysis if you are interested and you can contact me at mjpmoriarty@live.com
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