Thursday 17 December 2009

Where are the economists?

In Northern Ireland there is a visible dearth of public interest in economic matters. There are economists working in Northern Ireland – in the universities, in the Economic Research Institute of Northern Ireland (ERINI), and in the banks. But the level of public discourse around economics is close to zero.

This is painfully obvious amongst the political class, where economics is possibly the least debated issue. Policing and Justice, parades, education, culture, even sport, receive more attention amongst the politicians, the media, and the general public. Economics is consigned to the background, like oil in a car – essential, but nobody really thinks about it between services.

The parties pay lip service to economic policy. The DUP claim to have prioritised infrastructural development and investment in skills – but these are just words. The UUP parrot the same words, while claiming to have "a vision of a flourishing regional economy". Yet neither of these two parties either has an economic strategy, or any real interest in the area – their 'news releases' prioritise everything except economics.

On the nationalist side the picture is not much better. The SDLP has, at least, published a paper giving its policy priorities in the crisis period. It is long on policy and short on economics, but at least it demonstrates the beginning of an interest in how money is raised and spent in the public sector. The private sector, however, is largely ignored. Sinn Féin, it hardly needs to be said, has almost no economic policy beyond slogans and a dated statist mentality.

So much for the politicians. But what about the commentariat? In most countries the economy, public and private, is the subject of fierce debate amongst think-tanks, academics, journalists and bloggers. There is usually a healthy exchange of ideas and people between research bodies and government, and every aspect of the economy is analysed and argued over.

But not in Northern Ireland.

The research bodies, think-tanks, journalists and bloggers are fixated exclusively on politics. There is almost no debate about economics. The economy is viewed by many as an external environment – it is governed by people and laws that are outside Northern Ireland, and the only input that Northern Ireland has is as a consumer. The 'quangocracy' that absorbs so much of Northern Ireland's educated workforce is focussed on governance, on social matters, on community development and on 'equality' – and almost never on issues of economic interest.

The few bodies that have an economic remit are too often simply vehicles for political patronage, and are often grossly over-staffed and under-effective. They can overlap, they can over-staff, they can under-perform – and no-one really seems to care.

At the individual level, Northern Ireland has numerous political commentators – of whom blogs are one visible sign. But there is no single economic blog concerning Northern Ireland.

In the south there are excellent economics blogs; Ronan Lyons, David McWilliams, the Irish Economy, True Economics, the economics section on politics.ie, Turbulence Ahead and others. In the north, most blogs don't even include an 'economics' tag!

Does it matter?

As long as Northern Ireland is prepared to remain a dependent state with no control over its own affairs, then it probably matters little. If 'economics' in Northern Ireland is simply the distribution of London's largesse, rather than the creation of wealth, then political policies are probably more important. But if Northern Ireland ever wants to rise out of its infantile state and actually play a full and productive part in the affairs of the world, economics does matter.

The ability to understand how goods and services can best be produced, distributed and consumed, while maximising the efficiency of the use of scarce resources, is essential to any society that plays an active part in the modern world. A society that doesn't care how money is made because it receives a 'block grant' is like a child waiting for its parent to feed it. The lack of interest shown towards enterprise and wealth creation in Northern Ireland borders on the irresponsible. The local economy depends largely on the public sector, funded by taxes raised largely in London and the south of England – and while this is seen by unionists as evidence of the 'family spirit' of the UK, few families appreciate having to support indolent relatives ad infinitum. The time will surely come when the hard-working members of the family start to insist that the lazy members go and get jobs.

Unionists – at least – should care about this. If they wish to "promote the freedom and prosperity of all individuals in a stable and growing economy" (UUP), or "believe in a stable and prosperous future for the Province" (DUP), then they should want it to have a dynamic economy. Ignoring economic debate or analysis is no way to proceed. Nor is blaming the IRA's campaign, which has been over for half a generation – compare Germany, Japan or Korea, and see how fast they bounced back from utter devastation.

Yet it seems that the dependency mentality has become so deeply engrained in Northern Ireland that few people even show any interest in escaping from it. Until they do, Northern Ireland will sink further into economic helplessness, lacking even the intellectual tools necessary to plan its escape. As well as being a 'failed political entity', it is clear that Northern Ireland is a failed economic entity. The sooner its sorry existence is terminated the better for all of its people.

20 comments:

Garza said...

Actually the tories/uup have got a plan if they get into power, they are going to make Northern Ireland an "Enterprise zone", lower taxes for private companies etc. It will take a decade at least though to ween NI off dependence from London.

NI has just come out of a devestating conflict. It will take time to heal. No-one ever said this would be easy.

hoboroad said...

Patsy McGlone the new deputy leader of the SDLP is on the Facebook page Fianna Fail 2011 which was set up to urge Fianna Fail to start contesting Elections in the North in 2011.

Dazzler said...

Do you have a link to that facebook page

hoboroad said...

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000048252963&ref=search&sid=1595355932.2037656147..1

Horseman said...

Garza,

I think you win the prize for missing the point most spectacularly.

The Tories are, of course, part of the 'external' control of NI's economy. They are an English party, and do not represent a flowering of economic thought in NI at all. The UUP ... please, are you seriously including them in a comment about economic planning?

And it really is time unionists grew out of the silly argument about a 'devestating conflict' (sic). It ended 15 years ago, and for the 10 years before that was pretty low-key tbh. The economy was screwed anyway - based on metal-bashing and ship-building ffs. By 15 years after WW2 (a truly devastating experience) Germany was an economic powerhouse. NI ... a welfare dependent basket-case. Spot the differences?

My point is not that NI has issues - it does. My point was that nobody seems to be interested in tackling those issues. Instead unionists brag on about the 'block grant' and how 'the south couldn't afford us' - like thats a good thing?. You should be deeply ashamed! At the very least, there should be a cottage industry of economists trying to find a way back to wealth-creation. But there isn't - there's a bloody mega-industry of whingers and spongers and smug quango-employees who are more than happy to suck London's teat.

Unionism seems happy that NI remains a child in a grown-up world. That is puzzling and not very reassuring for the rest of us.

Anonymous said...

It is interesting to watch, the way the Republicans and Unionists have swapped strategies.

Where republicans once wanted to make NI economically non-viable as a strategy for forcing GB to leave, they now want the place to do well. Unionists seem to secretly want NI to remain a basket case because this allows them to use the argument that "the South can't afford us."

It's a bizarre strategy, and I'm sure they know it. They need some better arguments but Unionism has been in a seemingly unstoppable terminal decline for years.

hoboroad said...

Enterprise Zone sounds like Empowerment Zones like they have in the USA. I wonder how workers in the South of England will feel about there jobs being sent to NI because of Tax Breaks?

Garza said...

"Unionists seem to secretly want NI to remain a basket case because this allows them to use the argument that "the South can't afford us."

Any evidence of this is what unionists want at all? I'm all ears, because no unionist I know wants the economy to do badly.
At least we know that SF "doesn't do the economy" in Gerry Adams own words.

"And it really is time unionists grew out of the silly argument about a 'devestating conflict' (sic). It ended 15 years ago, and for the 10 years before that was pretty low-key tbh. The economy was screwed anyway - based on metal-bashing and ship-building ffs. By 15 years after WW2 (a truly devastating experience) Germany was an economic powerhouse. NI ... a welfare dependent basket-case. Spot the differences?"

Come on Horseman that is weak. Germany and Japan got pumped full of money to stave away communism by the Americans. Not only that they had the knowledge and manpower rebuild their economy easily. If you compare NI to Germany and Japan after WW2, and show your work to a historian, they would laugh in your face.

NI thanks to the troubles scaring away any private investment had had to rely on the public sector, schools, hospitals, very few manufacturing companies etc etc. Its going to take time to build a private economy. How long did it take the ROI to get a good economy and they weren't blowing each other up? Yet you expect a transformation overnight?

15 years of pseudopeace, thats what we have had, hardly enough to stop foreign investors getting nervous. Americans have only being investing the past 5 years, maybe less!

There is less talk on economy matters than in other nations because we are not a normal nation yet. When we get all past all this secretarian bullshit, then we will eventually get more economy commentators.

Anonymous said...

Garza, I meant by implication. No Unionist in their right mind would say anything other than they want NI to have a successful economy; they know the English aren't that thrilled about subsidising us as it is.

The fact that Unionists such as Chris McGimpsey repeatedly use phrases like "The republic cannot afford a united Ireland" as a way of saying unification is "absurd" (his words), leads me to believe they feel this is a strong argument. Presumably they want NI to remain unaffordable to the RoI, so that even if Nationalists become a majority, the practical reality (in their eyes) of NI's expense will prevent unification.

Perhaps I'm wrong, and most Unionists want NI to be successful even if it's success weakens the Union. I certainly hope so, and it's to their credit if they do.

Garza said...

"The fact that Unionists such as Chris McGimpsey repeatedly use phrases like "The republic cannot afford a united Ireland" as a way of saying unification is "absurd" (his words)"

He is saying what the situation is, I don't think the ROI are willing to foot a 6 billion annual bill, nor do I think they can at the present time.

"leads me to believe they feel this is a strong argument. Presumably they want NI to remain unaffordable to the RoI, so that even if Nationalists become a majority, the practical reality (in their eyes) of NI's expense will prevent unification."

That is complete and utter speculation on your part.

"Perhaps I'm wrong, and most Unionists want NI to be successful even if it's success weakens the Union. I certainly hope so, and it's to their credit if they do."

If you think that a better economy will weaken the union that is your opinion. I would argue the complete opposite.

Ironic that you think a more sucessful NI would bring a united Ireland quicker, when this blog is dedicated to point out how unsecessful NI is lol.

bangordub said...

Horseman,
to paraphrase your title, Obama made a comment to day about "politicians talk- Leaders lead"

Any thoughts?

Anonymous said...

"I don't think the ROI are willing to foot a 6 billion annual bill, nor do I think they can at the present time."

NI's economic weakness is surely bad news for those who would want a united Ireland, then. But wait!

"If you think that a better economy will weaken the union that is your opinion. I would argue the complete opposite."

So a strong NI means a stronger union. But so does a weak one! A win win situation for Unionists. And you not a bit unbiased I'm sure.

"Ironic that you think a more sucessful NI would bring a united Ireland quicker, when this blog is dedicated to point out how unsecessful NI is lol."

NI *is* unsuccessful, as this blog amply demonstrates. Would a successful NI in the future smooth the transition to a United Ireland? Of course, and this blog has argued that too.

What *is* ironic, is your misspelling of NI's success to "secess". Far from being "unsecessful", this blog points out NI's growing secessionist tendency beautifully.

hoboroad said...

According to Henry McDonald in the Observer both Michael McGimpsey and Bob Stoker have ruled themselves out of the running for the South Belfast Westminister seat. Leaving Peter McCann as the candidate for UCUNF that is if there is no Unionist pact with the DUP.

David Vance said...

Erm, when it comes to "failed economic entities" I think the Republic somehow beats Northern Ireland to the post. The glacial winds that accompany the death of the Celtic Tiger contrast with the relative balmy economic climate of this alleged "failed political entity"

That said, I agree there is less than desired economic debate in Northern Ireland and the current political parties appear to be economically illiterate.

Anonymous said...

Erm, if our balmy economy is doing so well I expect we won't be needing need our annual injection of several billion to prop up our non-economy in 2010.

I won't hold my breath. The thirty odd percent of our workforce in public sector jobs will disagree too. As will the 28% of the workforce classified as "economically inactive".

NI's economy has been a shambles for generations. Saying "the Republic is too!" doesn't make it less true.

Wiz said...

NI has always been a failed state. It has been a disaster since its creation. An embarrassment to the British internationally. They would gladly get rid of it tomorrow.

Wiz said...

Truth hurts I see. It has been a complete and utter failure and you know it. Subsidised by England to keep it afloat.

"Only an Irish prick"

At least you recognise that I ain't no Brit considering I'm from the North. Well done you!

Anonymous said...

I agree Anon above. Well said!

woscarin said...

Hey. Nice blog.

This post talks about the lack of discussion about Northern Ireland's economy (or lack of one). You are totally right. But then I notice this blog has only 2 posts labeled economy. Therefore this blog may actually be showing the same lack of economic debate that it says is in NI's politics.

Focusing so much on the personalities in politics or the changes in demographics that would increase the likelihood of an United Ireland is meaningless if it is not economically viable.

Is the choice really between being a parasite in the UK or being a parasite in an United Ireland?

The South doesn't need an army of public sector workers to enter its economy. That would be economic suicide.

The North doesn't generate tax revenue, it requires London and SE England to send over theirs to subsidize our living. The South already has huge debt and doesn't need a permanant loss-making North to worsen matters.

If our economic illiteracy continues we will forever be clueless spongers arguing about who to sponge of. The rest of the UK (who could understandably get fed up and kick us out). Would we really be welcomed by the south to form a United (poverty-stricken) Ireland?

Some people have to start the debate. So why not be one of them. A better NI economy benefits everyone, right?

Anonymous said...

The north could indeed do with some media figures like George Lee, Eddie Hobbes or David McWilliams in the media to at least provoke some public discourse and debate on economic issues.

But be careful what you wish for. They can also get extremely annoying at times. But perhaps a Belfast accent would make their likes sound less condecending....
We can only dream.... :)