Unionist unity pressure ratchets up

As the Westminster election gets inexorably closer, some unionists are getting visibly more nervous about the consequences of their dislike of each other.

The DUP has tried repeatedly to get the UUP to enter some sort of electoral pact, with increasingly obvious offers of quid-pro-quo deals. Apart from party leader Peter Robinson, the principal proponents of 'unionist unity' in the DUP have been Nigel Alexander Dodds, who knows that his seat is threatened, and Arlene Foster, who knows that she will never become an MP unless she is unopposed by another unionist. Recently, though, Robin Newton and Wallace Browne have also added their voices to the chorus, despite representing a constituency (East Belfast) with no particular reason to need unionist unity.

The UUP ignored or derided the DUP calls during much of 2009, apart from the odd solo-run by Tom Elliott (for the same reasons as Arlene Foster). Their non-merger with the English Tory party seemed to give them delusions of importance – almost as if they felt that they, with the Tories, now were the 'united unionist' party. The only problem with this was that the Tories had virtually no members, supporters or voters in Northern Ireland. Their role was to be the UUP's banker – as a source of additional votes they were likely to be a bit of a disappointment.

It seems that the UUP eventually came to realise this too, because in their first tranche of joint UUP-Tory candidates (to stand under the UCUNF label) the three constituencies where unionist unity could have a decisive impact were missing. Clearly there were still dealings going on behind the scenes.

In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, where the secret attempts to get Norman Baxter to stand as a 'unionist unity' candidate failed, Arlene Foster, the selected DUP candidate, recently said:

"There is a clear message coming from grassroots communities across Northern Ireland that unionism needs a co-ordinated and strategic approach. The overwhelming desire is for a much greater degree of cooperation between unionist Parties.

In Fermanagh & South Tyrone we know the effect of a fractured unionist vote and what the potential of a united unionism could deliver. There is the prize of representation at Westminster and greater unionist representation at Stormont but we should be aware what the effect of a divided unionism facing a de facto united republican opposition at Stormont would be. "

This is a clear plea for an electoral pact in her constituency, and taken together with both Tom Elliott's earlier support for a pact, and UCUNF's inability to name its selected candidate for the constituency, the only conclusion must be that Fermanagh and South Tyrone will, in fact, see a single 'agreed' unionist candidate in the Westminster election.

Whether this will matter is open to question. Liam Clarke, writing in Tuesday's News Letter is of the opinion that "unionist unity can't unseat Sinn Fein". He said:

"In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the facts of life are that there is a nationalist majority and Sinn Fein polls well. Fermanagh and South Tyrone's population was 55.6 per cent Catholic and 43.1 per cent Protestant in the 2001 census. In 2007, unionist candidates polled 46 per cent while Sinn Fein and the SDLP got 50 per cent between them. Sinn Fein alone scored 36 per cent and took the seat.

There are rumours that the SDLP intends to follow the UUP's lead in fielding a former journalist in the constituency. Running for the SDLP, he would need a miracle to unseat Sinn Fein. That can only be done by a candidate who could attract nearly all the unionist votes as well as a considerable number of nationalists. Someone running as a united unionist couldn't do that and would almost certainly lose.

That is why Norman Baxter, the detective who investigated the Omagh bombing, shied away from standing as a united unionist. Baxter is popular across the community through his work with victims. Friends say he knows that only a candidate who appeals across the community can unseat Gildernew.

[…]

Fielding a credible cross community candidate is the only way to return a real MP to Westminster."

Clarke's lack of confidence in the ability of a single unionist (drawing on the 46% of the constituency's electorate who voted unionist in 2007) to beat Sinn Féin, who polled 'only' 36.2%, is odd. Is he aware of significant portions of the unionist electorate who would not vote for a unity candidate? Or does he believe that the SDLP vote will collapse spectacularly in such a scenario?

If the SDLP stand a 'celebrity candidate', as Clarke hints, it would be a blow to their long-standing candidate Tommy Gallagher, and may lose them the votes of his friends and supporters. But whether these votes would go to Sinn Féin is less certain.

In any event, it is certain that midnight oil is being burned in the campaign headquarters of the unionist parties. Some form of unionist unity will undoubtedly emerge – in Fermanagh and South Tyrone at least. The agreed candidate will be neither Elliott nor Foster, and must be someone who could attract votes across the unionist spectrum and maybe from non-unionists too. This blog is impatient to see who this wonder-candidate will be, but suspects that the chosen person will lean towards the UUP, and the quid-pro-quo will be a weak UCUNF candidate in North Belfast, who will pose no real threat to Nigel Dodds. Step forward Fred Cobain, who has previously already proved his lack of popularity.

South Belfast is the last missing 'swing' seat. Although the unionists would like to take it back, their dislike of Alasdair McDonnell is less than their hatred of Sinn Féin's Michele Gildernew. The seat also still has a small unionist plurality, so the battle should be easier if they can find a compromise candidate. The DUP and UUP are close in size in the constituency, and if the TUV take some DUP votes the UUP would be bigger. There is also a significant Alliance Party vote which would tend more towards UCUNF than the DUP – though of course it might equally tend towards McDonnell.

The stakes are high and the risks are high too. No pact probably means no gains from nationalism – and worse, it could mean the loss by unionism of North Belfast or even Upper Bann – or both! There will be a lot more midnight oil burnt between now and the closure of nominations for this election.

Date of the Castlereagh East by-election

After the DUP's failed attempt to co-opt a young woman with UDA connections to replace Iris Robinson on Castlereagh Borough Council, it is now inevitable that there will be a by-election.

Thanks to Jim Allister's ill-advised attack on the Chief Electoral Officer (also picked up by the News Letter), it is possible to sketch out the possible dates for the by-election.

Douglas Bain, the CEO, stated that "the law provides that the Notice of Election must be published within 21 days of 24 February, which was the date on which I was satisfied that a vacancy had occurred. That period expires on 26 March." The maximum period that can occur between the publication of a Notice of Election and the polling day itself is 28 days (excluding Saturdays, Sundays, public holidays and 'Maundy Thursday'). During the period in question there are four such excluded days: Maundy Thursday on 1/04/2010, Easter Friday on 2/4/2010, Easter Monday on 5/04/2010, and the Spring Bank holiday on 3/05/2010.

That brings the last possible date for the by-election to 11 May 2010.

However, if Mr Bain wishes, he could shorten some of the periods. If he waits until the expiration of the maximum period before publishing the Notice of Election, then this allows the election to take place on any date between 4 May and 11 May. If he publishes the Notice of Election before its maximum period the by-election could take place in the second half of April.

Why all of this matters is simple. It is widely expected that Gordon Brown will call the Westminster election for 6 May, and a by-election in the DUP's heartland before that date would act as the ultimate poll of public sentiment towards that party. If there was a by-election before the Westminster election it would show how damaged the DUP has been by the Iris Robinson scandal, and how much of its support has migrated to the TUV or the UUP. The outcome of such an election would have a colossal impact on a later Westminster poll, dealing a massive morale boost to one or other party. Impressions matter – if the TUV or the UUP are seen to be 'on the up' in Castlereagh it could boost their vote elsewhere. Conversely, if the DUP easily retained Robinson's seat, this would greatly boost their image in the Westminster election, and give them extra votes.

There are a number of possible outcomes. Perhaps Gordon Brown, watching his poll ratings rise, will choose to delay the Westminster election for as long as possible, and the Castlereagh by-election will have to take place first. Another possibility is that the Electoral Office will hold the by-election on Wednesday 5 May (by-elections are usually on a Wednesday), but will not count the votes until after the Westminster election, if this is held on 6 May. In this way the Electoral Office will be seen to have acted according to the word of the law, but yet will not have influenced the outcome of the Westminster election.

A Game of Thrones?

After a week’s silence, during which the FP and DFM were supposed to unveil:

• a "report to the Executive detailing the level of progress made on each outstanding matter" and making "recommendations on whether and how progress could be made on any and all outstanding matters" – by 28 February, and,
• a "report to the Executive detailing the level of progress made on each outstanding matter [from St Andrews]" – also by 28 February,

We finally get a press announcement from the OFMDFM – but it is to announce that they have “welcomed the announcement that HBO is to film ‘A Games of Thrones’, a nine part television series, in Belfast”.

This is Mickey-Mouse stuff, and frankly insulting to the public.

If the FM and the DFM cannot do what the Hillborough Agreement requires of them, and their parties, then they should have the guts to say so. Announcing the filming of a TV show is, at best, the job of a junior spokesperson.

A game of thrones seems to be what the FM and DFM are playing – but they need to get off their thrones and roll up their sleeves. Northern Ireland is still in a mess, and when its dual monarchy thinks that playing games is more important than seeking innovative solutions, and making Northern Ireland a better place, then what hope is there?

If they cannot do what they were elected to do, what they’re paid to do, and what they agreed to do, then they should be big enough to step aside and let the two governments resume direct rule with a dark green tinge.

Unprecedented put-down

On 1 March Jim Allister released a press statement asking:

Why is Electoral Office Stalling on Castlereagh By-Election?

Statement by TUV Leader Jim Allister:-

"It is almost a week since Castlereagh Council occasioned a by-election to fill Iris Robinson's seat, yet the Chief Electoral Officer has failed to expeditiously fix a date for the poll? In past by-election scenarios there has not been such delay. Moreover, established precedent is to move swiftly to a date so as to fill the democratic deficit which a vacant seat creates.

In this case I suspect the DUP is anxious to postpone a poll till the General Election or thereafter, as they wish to avoid a test of opinion before the Westminster election, particularly in East Belfast. The Chief Electoral Officer should be immune from such pressures. I am therefore calling on him to get on with fixing an early date for this important by-election. There has been too much delay already."

In response Douglas Bain, the Chief Electoral Officer has released an unprecedented refutation of Allister's accusation:

RESPONSE TO JIM ALLISTER STATEMENT

Commenting on the statement issued by Jim Allister, Douglas Bain the Chief Electoral Officer said –

“I refute absolutely any suggestion that my decision on the date of the election is being influenced by the DUP. Indeed a person representing Mr Allister has been the only person to contact me about the date of the election.

The date for the by-election will be announced as soon as practicable. The law provides that the Notice of Election must be published within 21 days of 24 February, which was the date on which I was satisfied that a vacancy had occurred. That period expires on 26 March.”

Notes for Editors

1. The Chief Electoral Officer’s role begins only once he is satisfied that a casual vacancy exists. That was on the afternoon of Wednesday 24 February when he received a letter from the Acting Chief Executive of Castlereagh Borough Council.

2. Prior to receiving this letter the Chief Electoral Officer had already fixed a meeting for 2 March with officials from Castlereagh Borough Council to discuss the arrangements for any election that was required.

3. In deciding the date of the election the Chief Electoral Officer will take account of a range of factors including –

- the convenience of voters
- the impact on voters and schools used as polling stations of having a by-election and a Parliamentary general election within a few weeks of each other
- the absence of voters due to the Easter break
- the statutory timetable which excludes Saturdays, Sundays, Maundy Thursday and public holidays when calculating the election date
- the views expressed by politicians.

4. The Chief Electoral Officer refutes absolutely any suggestion that his decision on the election date has been influenced by the DUP. He has received no communication from them on this matter.

6. The period of time that elapsed between a vacancy occurring and the poll at the last three by-elections was as follows -

7. The timetable for filling casual vacancies on district councils is set out in Rule 1 of the Local Election Rules at Schedule 5 of the Electoral Law (Northern Ireland) Act 1962.

[The observant will notice that Bain's statement has no 'note 5' - he must have been so annoyed when he wrote it that he missed that.]

The step by Bain is highly unusual – perhaps even unprecedented – and shows that Allister's tactics are increasingly grating even on professionally neutral people.

Ebb and Flow

Following on from the recent post about the Schools Census and its consequences for the future, this blog would like to draw attention to a very interesting site on which some key outcomes of the 2001 decennial census are displayed in map form. This blog would also like to thank the creator of the site for permission to publicise it.

The site – http://nireland2001.webs.com/ – contains numerous detailed maps, at the level of province (Ulster), Northern Ireland (six counties), the six counties individually, and all of the main towns. For each area it compares the proportion of the population over 75 years of age to the proportion between 0 and 4 according to Community Background (Religion Or Religion Brought Up In), as recorded in the 2001 Census.

The maps show areas that are majority Protestant (community background) in orange, with the shade deeper or paler according to the strength of the Protestant majority. For areas with a Catholic (community) majority, the same is done but in green. To give a taste of the site, the example of County Antrim is shown below; all the other counties and towns are on the site itself, and are well worth a look [Antrim, Down, Armagh, Fermanagh, Derry, Tyrone]

The information is displayed for each ward, of which there are around 500 in Northern Ireland, and thus allows quite a detailed view of the situation.

Map 1: those over 75 years of age at the time of the 2001 census:


Map 2: those between 0 and 4 years of age at the time of the 2001 census:


Quite a few things stand out in these maps – here are a few examples:

• Rathlin Island – the rumoured vote for Ian Paisley on Rathlin may have been true, because a majority of those over 75 were Protestant (community). But their grandchildren's generation is over 90% Catholic (community)! However, as the ward includes both Rathlin and Bonamargy on the mainland, it is hard to draw conclusions about the island itself.
• South East Antrim – deeply orange-coloured amongst the over-75s, but much paler and less homogenous amongst the children.
• Look at how the green tide is spreading south from the Glens – Carnlough, which is less than 70% Catholic (community) amongst its old people, is over 90% Catholic (community) amongst its children. Glenarm, majority Protestant (community) amongst its old people, is over 50% Catholic (community) amongst its young. Glenravel (in Ballymena Borough) is even more dramatic – its old people are over 50% Protestant (community), but its young people are over 70% Catholic (community).
• The North-West electoral area of Antrim Borough has only one majority-Catholic (community) ward – Toome – amongst its old people, but four out of the five wards have a Catholic (community) majority amongst its young.
• Crumlin – as many know – has seen a dramatic change in its religious demographics, as has Rasharkin too.

The same effects can be seen all over Northern Ireland, as the numerous maps on the site show. As a way of visualising the changes that are making themselves felt in Northern Ireland – and that will intensify – the maps are invaluable.

Two maps also show a simple majority-Protestant or majority-Catholic image of Northern Ireland as a whole. The difference between the older people (map 3) and the younger people (map 4) is stark, and is reminiscent of the sea-shore as the tide comes in, flooding the orange sand with green water and leaving ever-smaller orange islands.

Map 3: those over 75 years of age at the time of the 2001 census:

Map 4: those between 0 and 4 years of age at the time of the 2001 census:

Oliver's army

Declan McManus (aka Elvis Costello) had his ups and downs, but one of his definite ups was his 1979 hit single Oliver's Army, which was inspired by a visit to Belfast.

Oliver's army is here to stay
Oliver's army are on their way
And I would rather be anywhere else
But here today

Hong Kong is up for grabs
London is full of Arabs
We could be in Palestine
Overrun by a Chinese line
With the boys from the Mersey and the Thames and the Tyne

What's that? The Mersey, Thames and Tyne? Where is the Lagan, the Bann or even the humble Bush?

Well, it seems that Costello may have been prescient. A brief look at the death statistics of the British army in Afghanistan between October 2001 and 1 March 2010 – 267 deaths – shows a meagre three from 'Northern Ireland' - and one of them wasn't, he was from Scotland (Sean Binnie).

So NI has provided 0.75% of the British military effort! And yet it has around 3% of the UK population – even if you exclude Catholics the evidence is that Northern Irish Protestants are a little reluctant to lay down their lives for London's colonial wars.

One death in 2006, and one in 2009.

This blog has touched on this subject before, but nothing seems to have changed. As the US and its poodle, Britain, launch yet another pointless offensive in Afghanistan it seems to still be the boys from the Mersey and the Thames and the Tyne who are doing the fighting and dying.

Britain's most loyal are not really so loyal after all. Perhaps this is why unionist politicians are so determined to host parades of 'returning' soldiers – to hide the fact that the evidence on the ground is that their own sons and daughters are not exactly flooding into the recruiting offices.

Paisley stands down

Unsurprisingly, Ian Paisley senior has announced that he will not stand again in the upcoming Westminster election. Although he had been giving conflicting signals for the past year or so, it would have been much more unusual if he had chosen to stand again at the age of 84 (he was born on 6 April 1926).

His departure (unlamented by this blog) opens up North Antrim. The DUP have yet to announce their candidate, but it is widely rumoured that it will be Ian Paisley junior.

Jim Allister will stand for the TUV, and will be hell-bent on taking the seat, which he will see as almost divine retribution on the DUP. The UUP/UCUNF have not yet announced their candidate, but if they find a good one, then the battle within unionism will be three-way, and even more interesting. The UUP have put forward Robert (or Robin as Mark Devenport puts it) Swann (who?) but the Tories have yet to make their counter-offer. Swann (if Robert) is a minor UUP activist in North Antrim, who got 2.9% of the vote in the constituency in 2007. He is hardly a serious contender. If he is 'Robin' he is even less well known.

Ironically, the second highest polling candidate in the last Westminster election was Philip McGuigan of Sinn Fein with 15.7% of the vote. In 2007 SF remained the second-largest party with 15.9% of the vote. It is very unlikely, though that the constituency will see the ultimate upset – a Sinn Féin victory – because unionism as a whole gets 67.5% so even split three ways evenly would win. Even nationalism's total of 29% of North Antrim's vote (2007: SF 15.9%, SDLP 12.2%, Independent nationalist 0.9%) would not be enough, as any whisper of a nationalist voting pact would swing unionists behind a 'champion'.

Essentially this constituency will be a battle royal for the heart and soul of right-wing unionism. Regardless of who wins it, the result will be a defeat for right-wing unionism, because intra-family battles are always dirty, unpleasant and damaging. The split between the TUV and the DUP will deepen and lengthen. If the DUP win, the TUV will lick their wounds and plan revenge; and if the TUV wins the DUP will be a badly wounded beast. Either way, the winners will be the opponents of extreme unionism.

So let battle commence!