Wednesday 23 April 2008

The European Election dilemma

In 2009 there will be elections to the European Parliament. Northern Ireland elects three Members (MEPs). And therein lies a problem, because there are four parties in Northern Ireland with a chance of a seat. Four into three just doesn't go – someone must get disappointed. In 2004 it was the SDLP who lost out, seeing John Hume's long-time European seat being snatched by Sinn Féin. Jim Allister comfortably kept Ian Paisley's old seat for the DUP (of which he was then a member), and Jim Nicholson scraped home to retain his seat for the UUP.

In 2009, however, there may be changes. Firstly because Jim Allister is no longer a member of the DUP, and is fast becoming their nemesis. They will do their best to dislodge him from 'their' seat, and he will do his best to retain it. On the basis of the (admittedly very unrepresentative) sample of Dromore, Allister won't win, but may take around a third of the DUP votes.

The second major factor is that unionism's historic majority is coming to an end. From a situation in the 1970s where they routinely got two-thirds of the vote, they have been dropping closer to half, and occasionally even below it. At the same time nationalism has risen above 40% of the vote, and in European elections up to 45% (in 1999). So the natural breakdown of two unionist MEPs and one nationalist can no longer be taken for granted.

Unionists are aware of this; on 19 April, Peter Robinson called for greater cooperation between the DUP and the UUP to reverse the trend of low voter turnout in unionist areas. He said: "We need to be mindful of the electoral strength of republicanism. They are getting stronger because unionist turnout is reducing." Since no elections are planned for 2008, his remarks were seen as a general advance to the UUP, which some even took as a prelude to a merger.

However, an article in the Belfast Telegraph on 23 April made it a bit clearer what is starting to worry unionism:

"Trust Peter Robinson to go to the heart of the problem facing unionism, although he didn't put it quite like this: unless it can maximise its vote, around a single unionist party or a two-party electoral coalition, it has little chance of staying ahead of nationalist representation in future elections.
The European election next year will prove this point. If the SDLP and Fianna Fail strike a deal, to maximise the moderate nationalist vote and win back some of John Hume's following, it may take the UUP seat. That would leave Northern Ireland represented in Europe by two nationalists and the DUP."

"The importance of the European election is that if it were to result in a 2-1 win for nationalism, the old order would be changed fundamentally. Either unionism would respond by much greater DUP-UUP co-operation or it would split into several factions, incapable of making the same impact in Westminster, Stormont or local government."

Unionism is faced with a dilemma. As it approaches parity with nationalism (in 2004 the combined unionist vote was only 48.6%; nationalism was at 42.3%) it needs to cooperate in order to ensure transfers, in order to keep two European seats. But the DUP will get few transfers from the TUV, so must look to the UUP for them. The DUP's biggest fear is that the TUV will take so many of its votes that it will be in fourth place in a race for three seats. A split unionist vote could see two unionist candidates being eliminated before the two nationalist candidates, thus giving the dreaded 2/1 victory to nationalism.

On the other hand, the article in the Belfast Telegraph may just be a promotional piece for Robinson's strategy. By hyping up unionist fears of the increasing strength of nationalism, and by being specific in a way that Robinson could not, the Belfast Telegraph may be trying to help the DUP counter its arch-rivals in the TUV.

This blog does not believe that the DUP really has immediate fears of being outvoted. In our view the Belfast Telegraph article is the opening shot in a campaign similar to that run by unionists before the results of the 2001 Census were released. In that case they exaggerated the Catholic proportion of the population, and quoted extensively from over-optimistic nationalist sources. This then allowed them, when the more reasonable results actually came out, to claim that nationalism had suffered a significant reverse. In the 2009 European election, by hyping the chances of two nationalist seats, and encouraging nationalists to believe that such an outcome is possible, they would then be able (if unionism still retains its two seats) to say that nationalism's hopes have yet again been dashed. If the SDLP and Fianna Fáil do actually fight the campaign together, and win back the seat that Sinn Féin won in 2004, unionism will be ecstatic.

The statistics, and previous vote transfer patterns, show that the likely outcome of the election remains two unionists and one nationalist. So any exaggerated hype to the contrary should be seen as what it is – a two handed gambit by the DUP to win its voters back from the TUV, and to humiliate Sinn Féin.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Horseman,
Next year's European election should prove very interesting. I am expecting an increase over the usual turnout since there will be an additional unionist candidate ( TUV ) and an additional nationalist candidate
( Fianna Fail ). In the final count in 2004 the SDLP lost by 38,527 votes. However, there were 7,221 undistributed Sinn Fein votes so the actual gap would have been 31,300 votes. In looking at the electorate demographics(those reaching the age of 18 minus the death rate ) there will be a net of 50,000 new nationalist voters and 15,000 new unionist voters by 2009 compared to 2004. However, only 40% of those will actually vote in the European election. Nevertheless, the unionist nationalist gap will narrow to 18,000. You had some interesting statistics under your
"baby boom " post. If you look at the birth statistics for 2007 almost half of the extra births ( compared to 2001 ) originate from mothers who where not born in the UK or Ireland. While a small number of these mothers are of Irish origin ( ie: born in Canada, the U.S.A., etc.) most are non Irish immigrants. Since over 7% of births are now from non-Irish mothers this indicates there are 120,000 non Irish immigrants ( EU nationals, etc. ) in Northern Ireland. If you look at the recent
" Black and Minority Ethnic and Migrant Worker Update " released by the Northern Ireland Housing Executive" in Belfast you will see that these immigrants are arrivng at a rate of 25,000 per year. If the SDLP and Sinn Fein are able to persuade even 15% of those to vote, then the the UUP will lose their seat. Yes, Peter Robinson is worried, and rightfully so. By the 2011 Assembly and District Council elections there will be over 200,000 ethnic voters and they will hold the balance of power . Ironically, Sinn Fein and the SDLP insist on power sharing in the Assembly and District Councils when such a strategy only benefits the unionist minority.

FAHA

Horseman said...

FAHA,

I don't think that there will be as many as 200,000 new 'ethnic minority' voters in Northern Ireland in 2011. Extrapolating from what might be a peak year for in-migration (I use this term deliberately rather than immigration, which has overtones of permanence) may over-estimate the numbers over a longer period. We are already seeing a reverse flow, particularly of Poles. This may intensify as the Polish economy improves; and there is no reason to doubt a similar effect with Lithuanians, etc.

However, even a small number of 'new' voters could influence the outcome quite dramatically. As you correctly point out, the natural increase in the electorate is largely Catholic, so the unionist/nationalist gap will close even more. Unfortunately, though, younger voters (majority Catholic) are less likely to vote than older voters (majority Protestant). The 'new' EU citizen voters are mostly Catholic, but not in Northern Ireland's tribal sense. They may, however, be alienated by the obvious anti-Catholicism of unionism. I expect that unionism will try to moderate its natural bigotry in the run-up to 2009. More importantly, though, the EU citizens know that their existence in Northern Ireland is a direct result of their countries membership of the EU, and they are likely to be pro-EU as a result. Here the natural EU-scepticism (or downright hostility) of many unionists may turn them off. The nationalist parties have a good opportunity to capitalise on these new voters if they portray themselves unequivocally pro-EU. SF seems to be somewhat equivocal, so there is a possibility here for the SDLP.