Despite the bravado of the UDA and other loyalist terrorists about 'Ulster', it is clear that they considered that around half of Northern Ireland was 'lost'. Their document stated that "British military intelligence suggests that at least two and probably three counties in Ulster are already lost. Surrendering two or three counties to the Irish Republic would alleviate much of the security problem". One assumes that these two or three counties were in addition to the three Ulster counties that had already been 'surrendered' in 1921?
The UDA's intentions for the Catholic population left in their new, truncated, Northern Ireland were sinister. The Catholic population left on the 'Protestant' side of the Orange Line was to be "expelled, nullified or interned". 'Nullification' was a euphemism for massacre. Those 'interned' were to be used, effectively, as hostages or 'useful bargaining chips' in possible negotiations.
The UDA's document was published in the Sunday Independent newspaper in 1994, unfortunately just before the internet started to provide an accessible archive, so while the document itself remains out of reach to this blog, its theoretical underpinnings do not.
The Orange Line that the UDA hoped to draw across Northern Ireland was based on the work of Liam Kennedy, author of the 1986 book Two Ulsters; A Case for Repartition. Although Kennedy was reportedly unhappy about the UDA's use of his work, others were less unhappy. Sammy Wilson, currently a DUP MP, Belfast City councillor and from today, Minister of Finance in the Northern Ireland Executive described the UDA's plans for mass murder and ethnic cleansing as a "very valuable return to reality" and that it showed "that some loyalist paramilitaries are looking ahead and contemplating what needs to be done to maintain our separate Ulster identity". Slobodan Milosevic and Radovan Karadzic would, no doubt agree, but unfortunately for the DUP such things are defined as crimes against humanity under the statutes of both International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia.
The map that Liam Kennedy suggested, and that the UDA adopted, was this one:
It includes three categories of area: (1) the core 'British Ulster' area, (2) an extension down the east bank of the Foyle and as far as Omagh, and (3) an island of Protestant majority territory in Fermanagh.
Clearly these boundaries could not have been used as viable boundaries for a besieged people. To hold even the 'core' area would be a serious challenge without some adjustments – there are too many corridors and near-enclaves. But of course the UDA may have hoped to resolve these by their preferred means – mass murder.
The Bosnian war showed that, eventually, the world would not accept mass murder and ethnic cleansing. If this was true in a region of south-eastern Europe without many ties to the US (who were the ones who acted against the Serbs after years of European dithering), imagine how deafening the calls from Irish-America would have been if the UDA were to try something similar in Ireland? The UDA would have found themselves at the receiving end of the US Airforce, and their leaders would have found themselves in front of the International Criminal Court in the Hague accused of war crimes.
[Next post: the current situation]
31 comments:
Horseman,
Are there any detailed maps (down to small areas) of the North showing the actual religious divide available?
This should definitely show why repartition is impossible!
I remember it said that Protestants were leaving the border areas. Was this so and where did they go?
MPG .....
Horseman,
Liam Kennedys work is based on the population data of the 80s.Would a map produced in 2009 be significantly different?
MPG .....
Anonymous
1986 Northern Ireland population was around 1,567,000.In 1986 Northern Ireland was the most sparsely populated part of the UK with 111 persons per square kilometre but it was forcast to rise by 7.3 percent by 2001.In 1986 NI had the youngest population of any region of the Uk with 8.7 percent of the population 5 years or under.
MPG,
wrt your first question, yes - but I'll have to look for the link. I have the map saved but I forget where I got it.
wrt your second (Prods leaving border areas), yes too - they went 'inland', or to the greater Belfast area, or abroad. Apparently Ballinamallard got a significant increase in its Protestant population, mostly coming from west of the lakes.
wrt the 2009 picture ... have patience, it'll be in the next blog (part 5)
;-)
MPG,
Here's the image, from the 2001 census results. Try and draw a new partition line based on this:
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/2001religionwardsni1.jpg
That map is based on the 2001 census. Should be very interesting to see the equivalent map in the 2011 census to see which of the light orange are now light green areas.
The UDA map shows how Urban that bunch really are!They don't a damn about the Protestant farmers of the west.I read a book called the Red Hand by Steve Bruce in the 1990's the greatest punishment in Loyalist Terrorist circles was being put off the Shankill Road.Andrew Tyrie set up something called the UDF training programme to train hundreds of loyalists as NCO's for the Doomsday Plan.They had a training camp near Magilligan in County Derry set up by a former Royal Marine Commando to do this.
Horseman,
I see what you mean, a truly impossible task if attempted by a western Government in modern times. It could only happen if people voluntarily uprooted and moved, which I can safely say will not happen.
The Serb experience in Bosnia etc will not have been lost on the more extreme elements of loyalism, maybe that is why we have heard no tell of the doomsday plan or a successor since.
Repartition is a non runner and even the dogs in the street know it.
MPG .....
The basic idea of giving up territory to maintain a Protestant majority was sound. But it needs to be done right. The border should be short and compact and based on a natural location like possibly the river Bann.
Could unionists swallow giving up the 'holy city' of Derry?
"The basic idea of giving up territory to maintain a Protestant majority was sound."
Please explain?
MPG .....
Anonymous(Not MPG)
Have a look at the 2001 map of electoral wards on Cain now tell me were do you draw the line?It might have worked in the 1970's but will not work now!
Horseman
Where did you get the map?Was it Liam Kennedy's book?
This UDA Doomsday plan was leaked shortly after the Downing Street Declaration.Several Senior UDA figures were killed in the 6 months afterwards ie Ray Smallwoods Joe Bratty and Raymond Elder.
One little known fact is that in 1974 Prime Minister Wilson, shortly after his election victory, seriously considered withdrawing entirely from Northern Ireland. Recently released documents confirm this plan. However, his plan met with strong opposition from, of all places, the Irish government. Apparently the Irish government did not wish to take over Northern Ireland after the British withdrawal, probably for the same reasons that the British wanted to abandon it. It is possible that the loyalist paramilitaries would have attempted an ethnic cleansing of Catholics, although with the presence of the Irish Army to protect Catholics, it is difficult to see how they could have done so.
As in June 1940, the Irish government passed up an opportunity for a United Ireland. I have read comments from unionists when these documents of Prime Minister Wilson were released and they were generally quite shocked that a British Prime Minister would betray them by withdrawing from Northern Ireland and ceding control to the Republic of Ireland.
Do you not think if the British withdrew the UN or EU would send in a peace-keeping force?In order to manage the transition to a United Ireland?In August 1969 the Irish Government moved it's troops up to the Border and Jack Lynch talked about not standing idly by.The plans were to take Newry and Derry if things in the North spilt out of control.
hoboroad,
I got the map via a circuitous route. I don't have Kennedy's book (and I think it is 'out of stock' even on Amazon). But the map was reproduced in a paper by Arnold Horner which you can download here:
http://www.ucd.ie/gsi/pdf/33-2/regions.pdf
Thanks for the information Horseman
Had a more reasoned partition either in the 1920's or a revised one been done things would have been better. The unionists should have settled for less territory while having a higher percentage of the population of the smaller state. I am also assuming that at least some of the Protestants left behind would resettle in the areas remaining to them. A more or less voluntary movement of peoples was/is not inconceivable either. For example Greece and Turkey exchanged populations voluntarily and without violence in the 1920's. Many Germans in the 1920's left the new state of Poland to settle in Germany's new boundaries.
That was then this is now!Lets just say things don't look good for the Unionists!If they bring down the powersharing executive they will show to the world where the real problem lies.To the Nationalists powersharing is the bottom line if the Unionists don't want powersharing they will get joint authority with Dublin!Unionists have to except that about 44 percent of the population will not put up with a return to majority rule.
The UDA Doomsday plan is a 15 year old document based on facts and figures that are 23 years old so they are hopelessly out of date!
Faha,
"It is possible that the loyalist paramilitaries would have attempted an ethnic cleansing of Catholics, although with the presence of the Irish Army to protect Catholics, it is difficult to see how they could have done so."
The Irish army may have consisted of over 100,000 men around the Civil War and the Emergency but I would guess that in the 60s and 70s its total complement was 10 to 15,000. I`m sure this colored the Jack Lynch Government decision on what should be done. They were not trained or equipped to fight a guerrilla war against a hostile population and its result would have been disastrous for nationalist Ireland. The Irish army could never have hoped to fill the vacuum left by the British and would have resulted in pogroms and ethnic cleansing on a scale unseen in Ireland in many century's.
I think Jack got it right.
In fact Ireland has not had an army since WW2 ( or should I say the numbers/equipment to have one) and the Irish military are called "The Defense Forces" (PDF and RDF). It has served with distinction with the UN around the world for the last 50 years or so with many of its members born and bread in the Wee North.
MPG .....
"Anonymous said...
The basic idea of giving up territory to maintain a Protestant majority was sound. But it needs to be done right. The border should be short and compact and based on a natural location like possibly the river Bann.
22 June 2009 20:47"
___________________________________________________________________________________________
As yet no explanation. I take it that Brookeboroughs vision of the northern state in the 20s should be reinvented and the "line" be moved to the next convenient location. The problem is this is undemocratic and would lead eventually to the same problem. Even Unionism should learn from the past and live up to their much prized vision of themselves as the guardians of democracy far from their "mainland".
MPG .....
British Military Intelligence says two maybe three counties already lost.And there was no collusion between Loyalist Death Squads and Mi5?
But still nothing?
No debate!
Nothing.
MPG .....
Anonymous said:
"Horseman,
Are there any detailed maps (down to small areas) of the North showing the actual religious divide available?
This should definitely show why repartition is impossible!
I remember it said that Protestants were leaving the border areas. Was this so and where did they go?"
I think you're getting a bit confused here mate. The aim of re-partition would be to create a more Unionist state, not one with absolutely no Nationalists at all. Note I use the terms Nationalist and Unionist, not Catholic and Protestant - an important practical distinction, as any opinion poll will show.
I like your statement to the effect of Protestants leaving border areas, suggesting they went of their own free will, as opposed to leaving because of the activities of The IRA. A nice turn of phrase so typical of The Irish - well done.
Anonymous said:
"Horseman,
I see what you mean, a truly impossible task if attempted by a western Government in modern times. It could only happen if people voluntarily uprooted and moved, which I can safely say will not happen.
The Serb experience in Bosnia etc will not have been lost on the more extreme elements of loyalism, maybe that is why we have heard no tell of the doomsday plan or a successor since.
Repartition is a non runner and even the dogs in the street know it.
MPG ....."
Re-partition is definitely a 'runner' if required. You seem to be expecting it to be 100% ethnically pure - not sure who's goal you think this would be - perhaps SF's?
As for your comments about The Bosnian Serbs, from what I recall they achieved most of their goals, establishing a de facto independent state, The Bosnian Serb Republic - in this case ethnically pure. No reason why this statelet can't join with Serbia at some point in the future.
Hoboroad said:
"That was then this is now!Lets just say things don't look good for the Unionists!If they bring down the powersharing executive they will show to the world where the real problem lies.To the Nationalists powersharing is the bottom line if the Unionists don't want powersharing they will get joint authority with Dublin!Unionists have to except that about 44 percent of the population will not put up with a return to majority rule."
The 'world' doesn't care about Ulster or about anywhere outside their own interests. As for joint authority with 'Dublin', I presume 'Dublin' will be paying half the bills? After all, almost half Ulster's population sees itself as Irish, doesn't it? Looking at some mighty tax rises there.
Hoboroad said:
"The UDA Doomsday plan is a 15 year old document based on facts and figures that are 23 years old so they are hopelessly out of date!"
Oh, I'm sure The UDA has been keeping any plans current, even with all the drug dealing they're meant to be involved in - or perhaps they've friends in high places doing it for them?
Watcher said...
"I'm sure The UDA has been keeping any plans current, even with all the drug dealing they're meant to be involved in"
Yeah, it's really sad when the dream is over and terrorists let themselves go to pot (no pun intended)... The trends are discouraging. At this rate, one day there'll be a Sinn Fein mayor of Belfast!
...Nah, that's crazy... ;)
Harold Wilson wasnt talking about a United Ireland he was Talking about leaving the Six Counties as a Dominion [he couldint agree weither inside or outside the Commonwealth he was going towards outside] ineffect a British Self-Governing Territory, the South disagreed because it would involve war [they thought] i dont see it like that if the British Had of Left with an Agreement in force
where by the following happend:
1. there would be Established a Consocial Democratic Parliament [powersharing] between Nationalist and Unionist, and other, [what we have now] which would be incharge of all affairs of the 6 Counties [Defence, Foreign Affairs included]
2. a writen Binding Constitution
split the 6 Counties up into 2 Federal States of equal size.
3. a Bill of Rights which Garentees all rights of Irish, or British citizenship for all etc.
4. the Loyalist would be told by both Governments that a United Ireland wasnt going to happen, and Nationalist would be Told that the British Where leaving forever,
5. a Anglo-Irish Parliamentary Council would be Establish for Co-Operation between east and west it would have no powers but only a Advisery Function,
and a North-South Parliamentary Council would be Established to
which would have the Authority that both the Parliament of Northern Ireland choose to give to it, and the Irish Government would transfer powers also it cant be one way,
6. Defence would be Transfered to an Army Council of the Isles which alone will have the Authority over the Armed forces of the North of Ireland,
this idear in effect is a Confederacy and resembles a Lot of the Idears of the Sunningdale Agreement without the Union Bagage
and the United Ireland so in effect both sides gain and lose the same,
if this had of been put into force
properly [maybe not in the 1970's maybe in 1998 instead of the Belfast Agreement with the Agreement of the UVF, UFF, UDA,
PIRA etc, then i think it would of worked but the 1970's with Ian Paisley screeming i dont think so.
then again its an idear for the future i guess,
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