Wednesday 20 January 2010

Pan-unionist talks

The revelation that "Ulster Unionist and senior DUP politicians held secret talks in England over the weekend" is both surprising and unsettling. The fact that the talks were hosted by the Conservative Party is even more remarkable.

Even Peter Robinson – currently unable to function as First Minister – was nonetheless present.

The Tory hosts said the purpose of the meeting was to "promote greater political stability"; yet neither the SDLP nor Sinn Féin were apparently invited. The aim of the meeting was clearly not to 'promote greater political stability', but to promote greater unionist representation at Westminster after the upcoming election.

Almost certainly the meeting was called in order to facilitate some sort of pact between the DUP and the UUP/UCUNF. It has become increasingly clear that the Tory's macho promise to 'stand in every constituency' was made with Britain in mind, and not Northern Ireland. If the Tories do stand in all 18 Northern Irish constituencies, and the DUP stand as well (as sitting MPs in nine of them, they can hardly stand aside), then there is a good chance that nationalists will retain the two 'target' seats of South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone. Worse, though, from the unionist point of view, is that a split unionist vote could even allow nationalists to snatch up to two additional seats – Upper Bann and North Belfast – leaving them, if everything goes their way, with a majority of the Northern Irish Westminster seats!

Such a scenario is, of course unthinkable to unionists. The DUP has been playing hard-ball, insisting on its 'right' to stand in both South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as they polled a greater share of the vote in the 2007 Assembly elections in these constituencies than the UUP. The UUP, for its part, has been obliged to pay lip service to the Tory promise.

Behind the scenes and away from the rhetoric, though, the strategists must have noticed the problem. The Tories want all the seats they can get, and even an extra one or two in Northern Ireland would be welcome. To win the election without winning a single seat in Northern Ireland would be embarrassing, but to win the election and actually lose seats in Northern Ireland would represent a local humiliation. Worst of all would be to find that the new Parliament is hung, and that the extra few seats that Northern Ireland might have delivered would have made all the difference.

Hence the new-found realism of the Tories. Above all else, they want to win the upcoming election, and if making a pact with the devil is the way to do it, then that is what they'll do.

So expect the announcement in the next month or two, of an 'arrangement' – not a pact – between the DUP and UCUNF, in which UCUNF will climb down from their foolish promise to stand in every constituency, and in which the DUP will stand aside in several key constituencies – perhaps in both South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone. The quid pro quo for the DUP will be that UCUNF will not oppose them in constituencies that are sensitive for the DUP – North Belfast, perhaps even North Antrim.

This UCUNF climb-down will be briefly embarrassing for the UUP, but will not even be noticed in Britain.

When the 'arrangement' (or 'agreement', 'understanding', 'unspoken deal', or whatever it will be called) becomes public it will reinforce again the sense that the Conservative Party – and thus perhaps the future British government – is taking sides in Northern Ireland. Nobody is in any doubt whatsoever that the Tories are, and always have been, at heart pro-unionist, but the convention for a generation or more is that London governments do not overtly take sides within Northern Ireland. In office, in fact, the Tories have often angered their 'loyal' subjects more than Labour. It was, after all, a Tory government that signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement and stated that the UK has no 'selfish strategic interest in Northern Ireland'.

The attempt by the Tories to hoover up seats in Northern Ireland for their own selfish interests will not greatly concern many unionists – for them it would be a confluence of interests. For the DUP, though, any Tory/UUP success is likely to come at their expense, so they will be less thrilled. Right now, though, they are looking very vulnerable, both from the right (the TUV), the centre-right (UCUNF), and the religious right (who are a bit unhappy about Iris and money issues). The secret talks could represent the best chance the DUP currently have to avoid a wipe-out – or at least the loss of half their seats.

For nationalists, of course, the talks confirm what they have always suspected – that the Tories are simply unionists in another guise. Ideological arguments in favour of voting Tory will be negated by the obvious tribal bias that the Tories are now displaying. The long-term effect of this will probably be favourable for nationalism – the non-merger between the UUP and the Tories was already a warning that they were going to side with the unionist camp, but if an 'arrangement' with the DUP follows so soon afterwards it will ensure that few nationalists will consider voting Tory. Nationalists will see the three parties (UUP, DUP, Tories) as simply different flavours of unionism (not to mention the TUV). Nationalists will most probably remain with their existing parties, or will seek to get Fianna Fáil to set up more systematically in the north.

If they achieves nothing else, last weekend's talks have already burst the bubble of expectations that the Tory invasion of Northern Ireland raised. Promises to "bring into politics those who’ve been put off by the sectarian divisions of the past" will be seen as hollow if the Tories enter into any arrangement with the arch-sectarian DUP. A "'modern, inclusive, tolerant and compassionate centre-right force committed to social justice" that divvies up seats with the homophobic bigots of the DUP will be a laughing stock. And a party that claims that "we’re not interested in people’s community background or religion – only what they can offer as we seek to build a shared future for everybody", yet enters an electoral arrangement with a party that obstructs every expression of the cultural identity of almost half of the population, is simply not credible. The civic unionists of the UUP who were initially sceptical about the UCUNF non-merger will have been proven correct, and will be seriously disappointed if any deal with the DUP is made.

47 comments:

hoboroad said...

I notice the TUV were not invited to the Unionist Unity talks. Why not are they beyond the pale for even the Tories to consider entering into an alliance with them?

Anonymous said...

A fine analysis, missing only a word on whether SF can be assumed to have recused themselves from Westminster in all eventualities.

Anonymous said...

I said previously on here that The Conservative Party would have no problem working with The DUP and this merely reinforces that view. The Conservative rank and file have always been strongly Unionist and remain so to this day whatever their leadership have done.

'No strategic interest' - only a Nationalist mug would believe that - fortunately there are and always have been plenty of those.

Anonymous said...

> Conservative rank and file have always been Unionist

(with a captial U too!).

The average Brit is actually sick to death of N.I. and everything to do with it.

The Tory interest is entirely to avoid having to do a deal with the Lib Dems over PR.

Your suggestions that the British govt is perfidious will not surprise anyone. Meanwhile, do enlighten us on the strategic importance to the UK of N.I. It might be more interesting than your usual bile and insults. You haven't mentioned priests today. Are you ok?

Anonymous said...

The average 'Brit' never thinks about Northern Ireland any more than the average Mancunian ever thinks about Portsmouth. The Union just carries on, year in, year out, whilst a bunch of freakish Irish Nationalists continue to delude them selves that one day 'their boat will come in'. It's absolutely side splitting - great entertainment.

Anonymous said...

The Union is a relatively recent confection and if it was as stable as you suggest there would not have been any trouble at all about it, no need for the Good Friday agreement and no internationally binding legal commitments entered into to facilitate reunification if that is a wish of the majority (which it will be).

All this is established fact, so why not explain to us the strategic importance of N.I. to the UK, buy which I think you mean that the UK govt will abrogate commitments it has entered into (which I do not accept, but go ahead).

Do I misjudge you? Can you do anything besides hurl insults?

Anonymous said...

26 out of 32 boats have come in already.

Needless to say, it was said to be out of the question.

That leaves 6 to go. Six little boateens saying no, no, we're not coming in.

We will see.

Ulster says never, and it also built the ship that couldn't sink.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said:

"The Union is a relatively recent confection"

Really? I guess it depends what you mean by 'The Union' old boy. Isn't it the bog Irish who rant and rave about 800 years of British rule? Still, even if you mean THE UNION, The UK is older than Italy and Germany and almost as old as The USA. In fact, The USA wasn't complete until much later. Still, why let details like that get in the way of an Oirish tale eh?

"and if it was as stable as you suggest there would not have been any trouble at all about it"

Yes, there WAS trouble - a lot of it, caused by Republican fantasists who couldn't allow the same self determination to The Ulster British that they claimed for themselves. Still, all's well that ends well, eh?

"no need for the Good Friday agreement"

The Belfast Agreement was a mechanism to pacify and normalise NI within The UK. Nothing less, nothing more. In that, it has been a great success.

"and no internationally binding legal commitments entered into to facilitate reunification if that is a wish of the majority (which it will be)."

Ye, I see what you mean dear chap. Binding legal commitments that allow a UK Secretary of State to call a border poll at his SOLE discretion. No problem there that I can see.

"All this is established fact, so why not explain to us the strategic importance of N.I. to the UK, buy which I think you mean that the UK govt will abrogate commitments it has entered into (which I do not accept, but go ahead)."

Land dear boy, LAND. England is staggering under the weight of it's population - the day may come when a second plantation is called for. There will be other considerations, but there is one for you to brood on. Not sure what you mean by UK 'commitments', other than the option for a UK Secretary of State to call a border poll if he feels like it (without consulting The ROI or Irish Nationalists generally)."

"Do I misjudge you? Can you do anything besides hurl insults?"

Oh, I do a bit of analysis, as well as hurling insults, but you see, a lot of what I read on this blog is nothing more than political masturbation, such as the following:

"and no internationally binding legal commitments entered into to facilitate reunification if that is a wish of the majority (which it will be)."

Surely you can see that statements like that are worthy of nothing but contempt? I tend to ridicule pious Nationalist drivel that has no basis in political realities - I can't help myself...

Anonymous said...

Zzzzzzzz

Andy, the runt on the rant!

Anonymous said...

'no need for the Good Friday agreement and no internationally binding legal commitments entered into to facilitate reunification if that is a wish of the majority (which it will be).'

Ulster's Doomed (LOL!) contributor.

'There is no requirement in the Belfast Agreement on the UK and Irish states to agree legal cession in international law'

Morgan, Austen: 'The Belfast Agreement, A Practical Legal Analysis.'

Austen Morgan is a London-based, Londonderry-born Catholic lawyer specialising in constitutional law. He advised the UUP on their approach to the all-party talks which preceeded the Belfast Agreement.

Anonymous said...

> 2nd plantation of Ulster

And the inevitability of nationalists becoming a majority is, in contrast, a "fantasy".

You've proven yourself not to be playing with a full deck.

Anonymous said...

Ye right - I'm not playing with a full deck, but you confuse Catholicism with Nationalism.

Prick.

Anonymous said...

'There is no requirement in the Belfast Agreement on the UK and Irish states to agree legal cession in international law'

Morgan, Austen: 'The Belfast Agreement, A Practical Legal Analysis.'

You've quoted this guff before. Just because a lawyer says it doesn't make it so. Anyone remember the McGimpseys' embarrassing forays into the Irish courts in defence of Articles 2 and 3?

Much the same vein, and equally deluded.

Anonymous said...

Articles 2 and 3. What happened to them?

Anonymous said...

"All this is established fact, so why not explain to us the strategic importance of N.I. to the UK, buy which I think you mean that the UK govt will abrogate commitments it has entered into (which I do not accept, but go ahead)."

Land dear boy, LAND. England is staggering under the weight of it's population - the day may come when a second plantation is called for.



Good grief. You have to be trolling, no one is this divorced from reality. Seriously mate. You need to see a doctor.

Anonymous said...

Articles 2 and 3. What happened to them?

20 January 2010 17:55

Perhaps you should look it up. Look into the McGimpsey case while you're Googling Andy, as your response suggests you almost certainly don't know what I'm talking about.

Anonymous said...

Who's Andy?

Anonymous said...

'You've quoted this guff before. Just because a lawyer says it doesn't make it so.'

It's amazing! You're prepared to dismiss a constitutional lawyer with an expert knowledge in the subject as 'guff', yet accept the word of a blogger with no background in demographics whatsoever as gospel.

Morgan's book gives the reader the legal facts behind the verbiage of the Belfast Agreement. The McGimpsey case against articles 2 & 3 didn't alter the fact that they were illegal under international law and recongised by no other state.

International law, not domestic law, best describes the domain of the BA.

So keep the 'delusion' to yourself. You clearly have it in spades, chum.

Anonymous said...

you

Anonymous said...

Try again retard.

Anonymous said...

Nationalist are the majortity in 4 counties and 4 out of the 5 cities, with a growing population, the end for wee ulster is coming...soon

Anonymous said...

'Nationalist are the majortity in 4 counties and 4 out of the 5 cities, with a growing population, the end for wee ulster is coming...soon'

Love the 'mature' analysis (LOL!)

Anonymous said...

"The McGimpsey case against articles 2 & 3 didn't alter the fact that they were illegal under international law and recognised by no other state."

No mate what's amazing is your lack of comprehension, despite my patient hints, at what that case was about.

You obviously never bothered your hole giving it a cursory glance, so I'll point spell it out. McGimpsey tried to use Articles 2 & 3 to argue the Anglo Irish Agreement was illegal, as the Irish government was bound by it's constitution not to recognise GB's claim on NI, which the Anglo Irish Agreement did do.

Despite the manoeuvring of clever lawyers, they lost. Even though, in my opinion, McGimpsey was indeed technically correct. Their legality internationally has nothing to do with this conversation, and you're showing your ignorance by bringing it up.

Anyway, no matter. It proved the governments of these islands won't let their will be overcome by nit picking lawyers. That you believe one lawyer's analysis outweighs an agreement made in the eyes of the world and voted for in referenda on both sides of the Irish border shows a stunning amount of desperation. Find a better straw to clutch at you buffoon.

Anonymous said...

'You obviously never bothered your hole giving it a cursory glance, so I'll point spell it out. McGimpsey tried to use Articles 2 & 3 to argue the Anglo Irish Agreement was illegal.'

You obviously have a hard time from the moment you wake in a morning. The Anglo/Irish Agreement did not define the status of Northern Ireland so as not to contradict articles 2 & 3. That didn't negate the reality of the constitutional position because that position has been defined and agreed in international law. All the AIA did was to allow the Irish state to recognise Northern Ireland de facto but not de jure.

None of that lessened the status of the AIA as a treaty.

'It proved the governments of these islands won't let their will be overcome by nit picking lawyers. That you believe one lawyer's analysis outweighs an agreement made in the eyes of the world and voted for in referenda on both sides of the Irish border shows a stunning amount of desperation.'

Desperation? The position as enuciated by Morgan is precisely the legal implication of the Belfast Agreement as ratified by the referendum in Northern Ireland (the referendum in the Republic was only about removing the illegal claim). All the joint referenda indicated was a willingness of the UK state to hold a consultative referendum so long as the Republic held a binding one on ending its claim.

Your contention that the referenda in the South was a vote on the internal workings of the Belfast Agreement is buffoonery in the extreme.

Before you start slinging insults, I sugest you give Morgan's book the time and consideration it deserves. It's a great deflationary tool to puncture nationalist egos.

Anonymous said...

It's impossible to argue with someone who doesn't understand what you're talking about. Literally. You must be trolling me.

No one can miss the point so spectacularly, so repeatedly. It's like saying I disagree with the European Constitution, because Mars is made from iron oxide. You are absolutely insane lad.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said:

"Nationalist are the majortity in 4 counties and 4 out of the 5 cities, with a growing population, the end for wee ulster is coming...soon"

You should try reading some opinion poll data pal - a lot of your Catholic neighbours don't favour a United Ireland. Perhaps the word 'Nationalist' means something else these days.

LOL

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said:

"Anyway, no matter. It proved the governments of these islands won't let their will be overcome by nit picking lawyers. "

Interesting thoughts - most Loyalists feel the same.

"That you believe one lawyer's analysis outweighs an agreement made in the eyes of the world and voted for in referenda on both sides of the Irish border shows a stunning amount of desperation. Find a better straw to clutch at you buffoon."

What agreement did the people of The Irish Republic vote for? I was under the impression they just voted to abandon The Republic's claims to Northern Ireland and therefore accept UK sovereignty over Northern Ireland.

Anonymous said...

Kieron says,

Excellent analysis, though I have to disagree with your conclusion as I cant see the Tories backtracking on their committment to stand in all 18 constituencies. Maybe the DUP will unilaterally withdraw from FST and SB and look for reward elsewherec - perhaps in Assembly seats (which the Tories dont contest). This scenario will be viable if there is no deal on the transfer of Police and an Assembly election is in the offing which recent rumours suggest may be the case.

Anonymous said...

Let's face it boys, none of this adds up to a row of beans. In a few years time The Sons of The Desert will have blown us all to hell and will be using our women as sex toys.

Try your graphs on them Horseman!

Anonymous said...

'No one can miss the point so spectacularly, so repeatedly. It's like saying I disagree with the European Constitution, because Mars is made from iron oxide. You are absolutely insane lad.'

Coming from someone who regularly posts on a blog whose whole raison d'etre is 'missing the point', and who is quite content to swallow traditional nationalist guff about outbreeding to victory, that's rich indeed.

I'll put it simply:

1. Irish claim on NI was illegal.
2. AIA was a legal treaty.
3. There is nothing in the Belfast Agreement that compels ('compels' is the key legal word here) the legislatures of either the UK or the ROI to consent to a 'united' Ireland.

I note the emergence of a new insult - 'insane'. As I said, try reading Morgan's book, or even Professor Brigid Hadfield's analysis on why the Act of Union, contrary to nationalist interpretations of the Agreement, is still in force.

I suspect you won't. For like all nationalists you live in this little bubble of fantasy and falsehood and, consequently, will not accept anything to destroy that tiny, tiny world of yours.

Irish nationalism - the see nothing, hear nothing, know nothing ideology.

Anonymous said...

In one day:

12:39
14:52
16:11
17:34
17:44
17:55
18:20
18:38
20:18
20:34
21:15
21:20
23:42


And yet you claim not to believe the arguments on this blog. You're here more than horseman.

Anonymous said...

Believe it or not, there are more Unionists contributing than just me. Of those 13 times, my posts account for only six of them.

'And yet you claim not to believe the arguments on this blog.'

I certainly don't believe the arguments on this blog. I just delight in taking the argument to nationalists and nationalism.

Anonymous said...

"Of those 13 times, my posts account for only six of them. "
"I certainly don't believe the arguments on this blog....."

The lady doth protest too much, methinks
- Munsterman

Anonymous said...

I find it fascinating that on Nationalist blogs and forums there is such an obsession with trolls and sock puppets. Do Nationalists not realise how many Unionists there are, not just in Ulster, but across The UK and even further afield? Or is it just the case that the legacy of touting within Irish Republicanism is so deeply felt that suspicion of duplicity is now the norm amongst Irish Nationalists?

Anonymous said...

Aye, we are well aware that there are Orange order lodges all over the world and we are terrified on a daily basis that we will hear the clarion call ringing out around the world to come and replant the 6 counties.

It keeps me awake at night.

I can see it now,

"Come and put Paddy back in his place! Free land! Send them to hell or to Connaught!"

It couldn't possibly fail.

Anonymous said...

I am a nationalist from the West living in Belfast. I have never met one of these Catholic Unionists that the Unionists frequently mention, neither in Belfast or in the West. I do believe they exist, but I suspect that their numbers are very small and they are either British born Catholics or Irish Catholics that move to England for college and never come back. There will be a United Ireland eventually, it may take 50 years but it will happen, demographics are changing, it is a fact. This is the one country from the mountains of West Cork to the Glens of Antrim, Unionist can deny change all they want.

Anonymous said...

The Catholic Unionists you speak off don't march around waving Union Jacks and shouting God Save The Queen, nor do they vote Unionist (on the whole). No, they merely oppose Irish Unity on a range of grounds. The opinion poll data is all in the public domain, so you claiming never to have met any of these people means sweet FA.

The rest of your post is the normal, "in twenty, no thirty, no fifty, no a hundred years there will be Irish Unity".

Whatever.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...

Believe it or not, there are more Unionists contributing than just me."

Then what makes you think he's talking to you? He could be talking to one of the other prolific posters.

Anonymous said...

I know some Northern Catholics working in senior NI government positions.

Are these the people of andys imagination?

I think not, they may be called Tim and Pat but they call their children Oisín and Saoirse.

The kids play for their local GAA team and come to Dublin to support their counties and Ireland in soccer and rugby in Croker.

They will gladly work for our new administration when the day comes together with all those protestants (majority) who will see the writing on the wall and abandon Unionism (but not their identity)and help with the formation of a new political order which will be based on a right/left divide rather than a religious/nationality model that has existed in the north since time immemorial.

Anonymous said...

"They will gladly work for our new administration when the day comes together with all those protestants (majority) who will see the writing on the wall and abandon Unionism (but not their identity)and help with the formation of a new political order which will be based on a right/left divide rather than a religious/nationality model that has existed in the north since time immemorial."

If it's all so cosy in Northern Ireland with all these Catholics working in SENIOR GOVERNMENT POSITIONS, then why the fuck would they vote for Irish unity? You fuck wit!

Anonymous said...

Aye, LOL.

And who's going to pay their salaries? At least £4 billion per year for The Republic to find apparently. Perhaps they can have a whip round in Kilburn.

LOL

Anonymous said...

Watching this nut talk to himself is pure gold.

Anonymous said...

I suppose this article highlights a fundamental question about unionist political representation. In 1997 there was a clear distinction between the UUP and DUP, but in the current political climate is there sufficient difference between the two parties to warrant their joint existence?

Anonymous said...

"If it's all so cosy in Northern Ireland with all these Catholics working in SENIOR GOVERNMENT POSITIONS, then why the fuck would they vote for Irish unity? You fuck wit!"

If you can only respond in such a fashion you have lost the argument. Abuse is not acceptable as a response and neither is a question for which you have no knowledge about. You obviously know no Catholics or else you would not be making stupid claims as to the strength of nationalism in the minds of all the vast majority of Catholics in the North.


But then again, andy, you live in England. How could we expect a foreigner to know this. We should take pity on you and do our best to enlighten your goodself to the truth---the future is Green/White/Orange. Bless you!

Anonymous said...

The prick above thinks every Unionist in the world is called Andy. If anything it would be Billy, you clown.

LOL

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said:

"But then again, andy, you live in England. How could we expect a foreigner to know this. "

People in England and Northern Ireland live in the same country you moron - it's called The UK. It's those who live in The ROI who are the foreigners.

Even for a drooling paddy, you're tremendously good entertainment!

Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

Unionism does not own Billy or William etc. There are many Irishmen called these names including my own family members.

But how could you know,andy, you are a foreigner living in a foreign land even if it is our nearest neighbour and friend.

I have already told you about your abusive scribblings--you lose any argument and paint yourself as being an intollerant bigot who cannot make a reasoned intelegent case to support your views.

Where have all those reasonable Unionist scribes gone, those who can debate without abuse and exageration?

Great stuff, Horseman, keep it up. andy will eventually have a coronory and expire to be replaced by a reasonable type of person.