Friday 29 May 2009

More betting odds

As the election approaches, the betting activity increases. The odds quoted by Paddy Power have changed again.

For the book on 'Northern Ireland - to top the poll?', Paddy Power are now quoting de Brún's odds at 2/11, which is getting very close to what punters might call a dead cert. A bet of €10 at those odds would return you only €11.82.

Diane Dodds odds on being the 'woman who tops the poll' have lengthened yet again, to 3/1. Since the start of the formal election campaign the bookies have been continuously lengthening her odds – from 11/10 to 2/1 and now 3/1. If the bookies and their punters are correct, the DUP's "disaster" may be about to become reality.

Paddy Power have added an additional book on 'Northern Ireland - to win a seat?'. Here, as might be expected, the odds on both de Brún and Dodds are very short; both are quoted at 1/50, which would return a profit of only 10 cents to anyone willing to bet €10. Interestingly, the next shortest odds are Jim Nicholson's, at 1/12. Both Allister and Maginess are on 5/1, and the two also-rans have odds of: Agnew 20/1 and Parsley 25/1.

So it seems that the wisdom of the punter, as reflected through the betting odds is that both de Brún and Dodds will win seats easily, though de Brún will top the poll, and that the third seat will be taken by Nicholson. Maginness will remain 'always a bridesmaid and never a bride', while Allister will slink off to plot his next move. If, as the odds predict, Parsley scores even fewer votes than Agnew, it surely is time for the Alliance Party to take a long hard look at itself.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

The three winning candidates is a no brainer same three parties as last. What is the big question is, how many votes Uncle Jim can garner, and whether it is possible to break down his appeal by constituency (to gauge TUV prospects for a breakthrough at the next Assembly elections). Also, will the Unionist lead of 35k votes over SF/SDLP be reduced by much if any. Will Jim's providing the third option for Uninonist voters bring out additional voters from that family, or will the whole thing be a big turn-off for an increasingly cynical public? Predictions please for the Unionist-Nationalist gap. I will pitch in with 30k.

hoboroad said...

Nigella Dodds was on hearts and minds last night not a great preformance.She sounded like a demented DUP parrot the DUP must top the poll must top the poll must top the poll or sinn féin will.At least two people I know are now going to vote Sinn Fein 1 just to stick one up Nigella.

hoboroad said...

Is there a DUP feminist wing by the way?Remember in the old assembly was it not Nigel Dodds who told the Womans coalition to go home and make there husbands dinner?

Anonymous said...

hoboroad,
correct it was Dodds. 'go home and make the tea' if I recall.

kieron said...

Alban's odds have cut from 10/1 to 5/1 in the last week or so - with TUV Jimbo expected to get over 60,000 (based on PP) then Alban must be in with a shout assuming SF top the poll and transfer to him followed by Greens and Alliance. Odds are not completley logical in that they reflect money backing a candidate - so perhaps Alban still represents 'value' at 5/1.

I'm sure they wont but it would be cracking stuff if PP offered live betting on the outcome.

hoboroad said...

ONS 2007-8
Spending per person

Northern Ireland £9,577
Scotland £9,032
Wales £8,493
England £7,426

See this I found it on Iain Dales website
He wants to reform the Barnett formula

Anonymous said...

I hear Dermot Ahern on the radio making noises about the possibility of Fine Gael considering SF as a coalition partner in the future. What cheek! FF will not deal with SF in the south meanwhile expecting unionists to do so in the north. Time for some people/parties to grow up.

MY PASSPORTS' GREEN.....

hoboroad said...

Is Mrs Dodds the DUP's Sarah Palin?so says Mick Fealty over on Slugger o'toole.

Militant Mike said...

In a strange way i enjoyed the rabble on the Politics Show yesterday and am still voting for Parsley - in fact the show by the rabble has made me even more determined than ever to vote Alliance - although sadly its probably where my second preference vote goes that may determine the outcome of the third seat. Such power in just one wee vote.

hoboroad said...

Militant Mike do you think Dodds has shot herself in both feet with her preformance?

Militant Mike said...

Well she certainly won't have won over many uncommitted or floating voters but i'm pretty certain she will be an M.E.P. - albeit with a very sore foot.

hoboroad said...

I see some DUP posters have been pulled down overnight in the town I live.