Although it is not particularly new (it was published in March this year), the 2007 Labour Force Survey Religion Report is, as always, a fascinating compendium of information on the religious breakdown of Northern Ireland, and on the evolution of that breakdown. [For the enthusiasts, the 2006 LFS Religion Report is here]
The report is too detailed to be summarised in one blog entry, but some interesting snippets include:
2.3 Population aged 60+: Figure 2.3 shows the composition of the population aged 60+. The proportion of Protestants was 66% in 1990 and 63% in 2007. The proportion of Roman Catholics was 30% in 1990 and 31% in 2007. The proportion of the population aged 60+ from the other/non determined group was 5% in 1990 and 6% in 2007.
And;
2.4 Population aged 16-24: The composition of the population aged between 16 and 24 is shown in Figure 2.4. The proportion of Protestants was 49% in 1990 and 42% in 2007. The proportion of Roman Catholics was 44% in 1990 and 50% in 2007. The proportion of the population aged 16 – 24 years from the other / non determined group was 7% in 1990 and 8% in 2007.
In short, although it is based on samples rather than the whole population, the LFS Religion Report shows that the deceleration of the Protestant proportion of young adults is incredibly fast: from 49% to 42% in less than a generation. These are the people who are going to get the jobs, buy the houses and have the kids in the next few years! And the older people, those who comprise most of the deaths, remain two-thirds Protestant.
If 50% of the 16-24 year-olds are Catholic, then at least 50% of new entrants to the workforce should also be Catholic. But where will they work? Well: ' … over the period 1993 to 2007 the percentage of Catholics with higher qualifications has increased from 17% to 31% and the percentage of Protestants with higher qualifications has increased from 17% to 26%' – so with a greater proportion of the greater number with higher qualifications (Catholics: 31% of 50% = 15.5%, against Protestants: 26% of 42% = 10.9%), Catholics can expect to take around 60% of the better jobs. Figure 7.2 in the report shows how this gap is actually increasing over time.
Being based on samples means that there is always some variability in the results, but taken over the period in question, 1990-2007, the patterns in the many graphs and tables in the report are clear and unequivocal – Northern Ireland's workforce, like its general population is rapidly becoming less Protestant and more Catholic. Nothing in this report argues against the general thesis of this blog, that within the next generation Northern Ireland will have a Catholic majority, and that unless a major change happens, this will be followed by a nationalist majority. Ulster, it seems, is still doomed!
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35 comments:
Excellent Piece. Keep them coming.
Diane Dodds has said she wants to get a second Unionist elected on her Transfers.So Diane who is it going to UCUNF or TUV?The people you have called Traitors and lundys the past 40 years or I cannot believe it's not the DUP the guy who kept to the party manifesto unlike you.
A few thoughts...
1) What the devil is "non-determined"?
2) Is it really wise to keep telling the Orange-Protestants their doomed? Doesn't this just feed into their already substantial paranoia? Is this really prudent or diplomatic?
Anonymous,
The report says that: "The term other/non determined is used
throughout this report to represent non Protestant / Roman Catholic religions and respondents that did not specify a religion" (page 68).
As for why this blog continuously reminds unionism that it is almost past its sell-by date - well, it may help them to focus their thoughts on reality rather than on the mistaken belief that they will 'own' NI for the foreseeable future. It may push unionism in the direction of compromise and moderation (we're already seeing this via UCUNF, a direct result IMHO of the dawning realisation).
As a final reason, of course, it demonstrates to nationalists that there is now no need whatsoever to return to the armed struggle.
Well said!
It may push unionism in the direction of compromise and moderation (we're already seeing this via UCUNF, a direct result IMHO of the dawning realisation).Is it, though?
To judge by a lot of UCUNF's most fervent advocates on Slugger and elsewhere, it's less compromise and moderation than re-heated integrationism.
How to hell is integration going to work it takes two to tango and Nationalists are not to dance to that tune?They supported the Good Friday Agreement which is power sharing within a British Context.Just wait to the Tories get in and start massive cuts to public spending do you think the six counties are going to be exempt from them?Do you think the Tories are going to leave the DLA system the way it is no chance!
1) I still wonder what the cultural sympathies are of the "non-determined"? Obviously these people have to have some identity of some kind. Are they friend or foe?
2) I am just afraid that constantly reminding the irrational Orangemen they have no future may provoke them into doing something really irrational (I.E. dangerous). My thinking is along the lines, its better not to rub it in, so to speak.
Believe me I am no friend to the Orangemen-unionist cause.
By the way I don't know if you are aware of it or not but an article was written by Roderick Moore in Free Life issue 37, September 2000 called Plan B for Uster.
I was curious what you think about it? It may make some sense. Even if/when Protestants lose their absolute majority, Eire would still have a large emotionally hostile Protestant community thrown in its lap. I am not sure what the best solution is? Somehow I just can't see the Orangemen going gently into that good night. I see them kicking and screaming all the way....
What has happened when the British have withdrawn from anywhere else?The British have a habit of pulling out of other countries for example India Kenya Pakistan Zimbabwe.
hoboroad,
The list is much longer.....
Washing their hands of the problems!
I doubt if they would be able to get away with it here... too close to home and also with the eyes of the world (especially the US) on them. The EU would have to have a huge role in it too and rightly so, the rights of minorities must be protected.
I remember seeing some UDA maps leaked to a Sunday Newspaper I think they were going to concede the three western counties and fight like hell to hold Antrim and Down.That was the early 1990s a Doomsday Plan they called it.
Does anyone have any more info on this "doomsday plan"? A lot of the problems of Northern Ireland today would have been avoided if in the 1920's the Orangemen had been less greedy for territory - had they accepted a substantially smaller state. A lot more Catholics would today be living happily in the Republic and the Protestants would probably not be facing the current demographic crisis. Placing the boundary on a natural line, like the river Bann and Lough Neagh would also make a lot of sense.
The UDA DOOMSDAY PLAN appeared in the Sunday Life newspaper.It was colour coded I remember green for nationalist orange for Unionist.I think it mentioned a scorched earth policy to areas it could not hold.Expelling the Catholics from all the Majority Unionist areas.I think it mentioned Internment camps of some sort though I do not know what form they would take.It was all very detailed and looked like it may have some offical help from an outside agency.Did Maggie Thatcher's government not look at something the same?
The UDA plan was also published in the Sunday Independent on the 16/01/1994.I found that on Repartition of Ireland page on wikipedia. Julian Critchley the Tory MP advocated it to the Bow Group in 1972.The British and Irish Governments have Doomsday Plans.The IRA had one captured with Brendan Hughes in 1974.
Maggie Thatcher revealed in 1998 when things when were not going well with the Anglo-Irish Agreement she considered some form of Repartition.
The UDA Document is based on a book written by Dr Liam Kennedy of Queen's University in 1986.He advocates Repartition of Ireland although he would not support violence to achieve it unlike the UDA.
Crimes of Loyalty:A History of the UDA by Ian S Wood also mentions the Doomsday plan.
Critchley was the Mp for Aldershot when he was talking about this so not a neutral observer.He was also a wet tory who called Maggie the Great White She Elephant.But I think he was flying a kite for someone in Ted Heaths Government at the time.
The way I see it Catholics have nothing to lose and can only gain from a partition of Northern Ireland. Every village, town, hamlet or county that is unified with the Republic is one less area where Catholic Irish have to live in a hostile and unnatural state.
Dr Kennedys book is called 2 Ulsters why not a nationalist Ulster and a Unionist one?The only problem is who would the Orangemen have to upset in a 100 percent Protestant state. No Fenians to fight with they will start fighting with each other.If history is anything to go by look at the Ulster-scots they left for America to get away from the Church of Ireland not the Church of Rome!
Nationalists in Derry have always complained of being treated as second class citizens.Here's your chance make Derry the Capital City of Nationalist Northern Ireland it could properly develop as a Port.And Derry already has strong links to the USA.
Ireland is the whole island and not 26 or 30 counties. All 32.
REPARTITION is not and can never be accepted by any self respecting Irishman. When the time comes,50%+1, and the referendum vote is for reunification as provided for in the agreement, there will be no alternative. International agreements have been signed and the democratic high ground will be ours. The US, EU and the UN will support us. That is not to say that a charm offensive and certain concessions can not be put in place.
I believe nationalism can be magnanimous to a point as long as the holy grail can be grasped and secured for good.
Any talk of repartition should never be entertained---EVER!
MY PASSPORTS'GREEN.....
I was only joking Anonymous of course I want all 32 Counties as well.Ireland free and unfettered.Four green fields a nation once again.
You right though Unionists can be given concessions inside a United Ireland but zero none zilch outside one.
Thirty is better then twenty-six, just as twenty-six was better then zero. You take your successes where and when you can find them. The Orangemen would be more trouble then they are worth to Eire. Anyways this is all just food for thought...
Anonymous,
Éire is a direct translation of the word Ireland and refers to the whole island. Éire is used by unionist types in an attempt to distinguish themselves or should I say "Norn Irn" from what they believe to be an inferior, foreign and never to be trusted country on the other side of their "cultural" border. Unfortunately for them this border although it exists on a map and is internationally recognized, is very difficult to find physically and does not affect the daily lives of those separated by it. It will be removed democratically within a generation. I wonder does intransigence in the Unionist community increase as you move further into the north or can you tell?
Anybody know?
MY PASSPORTS' GREEN.....
I'm just afraid that the Orangemen may cause Eire all sorts of problems. We may be better off without them. I think a lot of readers of this fine blog have the idea in their heads that in day (May 12?) year (2032?) when Catholics become 50% + one soul of the population Northern Ireland is going to magically dissolve into the Republic and all will be well. I fear that is a very dangerous oversimplification. Mind you, I would love to be proven wrong. But consider what if in the 1920's when Eire was created if one-third of the population was unionist minority (the mirror image of the situation in the north) how this would have affected and retarded the south's progress.
Nobody said that it would be easy or painless.
Irish Free State was founded initially in the early 1920`s and I believe it was renamed in the 1937 constitution.
As I said Éire = Ireland--i ngaelige.
I can not speculate as to what would have happened in the scenario described above but I hope that the Irish government would have tried to integrate and not publicly alienate those unhappy within its borders.
MY PASSPORTS' GREEN.....
It also has Eire on the front cover of your Irish Passport Anonymous it's above the Harp and Ireland!
30 posts well done on roll on Thursday 4th June 2009
Correct!
MPG.....
No problem with use of Éire but.
When speaking in English....
When speaking in Irish......
Some unionist types use Éire in an attempt to look down their noses at us. So I would be suspicious of those using the Irish version in an English language context!
MPG.....
It's mostly older people who use Eire and they are biting at the grave so who cares! I take you point though I never use it myself it's like when they used to use Free State to describe the ROI that is just disrespectful and ignorant!
You are right, I should not be bothered!
MPG.....
> Ulster, it seems, is still doomed!
This punchline made me laugh. But, as someone else has noted, this line might exacerbate unionist neuroses even if it's intended to concentrate their minds and reassure nationalists.
Wouldn't Ulster will be healed be a better line? Not so punchy, I know, but more optimistic and positive. After all, Ulster is 9 counties and not 6.
It's not Ulster that's doomed, it's unionist supremacy -- assuming you are right.
The 6 counties may be far enough behind the times in terms for your projections to come to pass, but the rate at which Catholocism is a declining feature of Irish life in the Republic is striking. A historian, Roy Foster, has written that the Republic has effectively become a Protestant country over the last 30 years. At first I was astonished by this but on reflection I realized that there was a lot in it. Perhaps this will make the idea of dissolving the border more acceptable.
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