The definitive list of candidates for the European Parliament election on 4 June has just been published by the Electoral Office. It contains no surprises at all. As already signalled, Colin Duffy did not nominate himself, and neither did any other dissident republican. Despite their claims, neither did Libertas.
The list of candidates is:
Steven Agnew - Green
Jim Allister - TUV
Bairbre de Brún - Sinn Féin
Diane Dodds - DUP
Alban Maginness - SDLP
Jim Nicholson - UCUNF
Ian James Parsley - Alliance Party
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4 comments:
what are the permutations?
Are we in for a nice surprise?
Keep it coming!
MY PASSPORTS' GREEN.....
Sinn féin first DUP second SDLP third
This election could provide an interesting preview for the 2011 Assembly and District Council elections. All the competing parties would win seats in the next Assembly election. Unfortunately, the electoral office is so far unwilling to release the results by constituency. There are no minor parties to confuse any post election analysis. I believe that the Alliance Party may do better than expected. The UUP merger with the Conservatives will alienate those UUP voters who identify with Labour or the Liberal Democrats at Westminster. How large is this group ? There was an interesting pattern in the 2007 Assembly election with UUP transfers in South Antrim and Strangford. When the UUP surplus was distributed at the final counts the UUP voters only had a choice between DUP and SDLP candidates. 20% choose the SDLP and 60% choose the DUP with 20% not transferring. I imagine there were many among those 20% who did not transfer who were not willing to transfer to the SDLP but would have transferred to Alliance. Perhaps a third of all UUP voters prefer the SDLP or Alliance to the DUP. The UUP received 15% of the 2007 Assembly vote and probably 5% of that 15% are voters who prefer the Alliance or SDLP to another unionist party. How many of these will defect to the Alliance Party ? Furthermore, current Alliance voters may be less willing to transfer to the UUP-Conservatives and this would diminish the final UUP vote. On Slugger you referred to the unwillingness of the Alliance Party to encourage their voters to transfer to the SDLP . However, many may do so anyway as they are now even less likely to identify with UUP now that they have merged with the Conservatives.
Faha,
I share your frustration with the electoral office. It makes our job in 2010 and 2011 more difficult.
Regarding the issue of Alliance transfers, I am frankly amazed that Sammy Morse (aka Gerry Lynch, Parsley's election agent) will not recommend transferring to the SDLP. They are the only other pro-EU party, and yet he will not endorse them. Strange. Part of the reason, I suspect, is that he knows that the majority of Alliance voters (almost all in the east of NI in largely unionist areas) are default unionists, and a recommendation to transfer to a 'nationalist' party, even if it is pro-EU, would be too much for them. He is tacitly admitting that Alliance are unionist in nature and instinct. The linking of the UUP to the Tories may actually make a transfer to Nicholson more likely. Note how the UCUNF crowd are trying desperately to persuade us that UCUNF uis 'non-sectarian' - i.e. worthy of Alliance transfers. We'll see how it works out.
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