Wednesday 24 February 2010

Pan-nationalism revived

Margaret Ritchie, newly elected leader of the SDLP 'has re-affirmed her party's nationalism, implicitly moving away from suggestions of any sort of Assembly link with the Ulster Unionists and Alliance Party'.

This puts a small spanner in the works for those who had hoped to prise the SDLP away from Sinn Féin, and to co-opt them into a 'voluntary coalition' arrangement, the sole purpose of which would be to permanently exclude Sinn Féin from power.

Ritchie's rival, Alasdair McDonnell, was known to favour closer cooperation between the SDLP and the UUP and Alliance to form a 'centrist' group in the Assembly. In such a scenario, of course, the SDLP could have been enticed by its new unionist 'friends' to accept a place in a voluntary coalition, and Sinn Féin – in the dreams of unionists – would have been cast out into the darkness. Unionism would have made up the lion's share of the voluntary coalition, and thus would have held the majority of the posts and most of the power. The sun would again have started to shine in the blue skies of unionist 'Ulster'.

But with Ritchie asserting a clearly nationalist agenda, the fantasy of voluntary coalition is unlikely to come about, and the blue sky is clouding over. The future, whether or not unionists like it, involves sharing power with Sinn Féin as equals, not just throwing a few titbits to the SDLP as a junior member of a voluntary coalition.

29 comments:

Paddy Canuck said...

Heya, Horseman, :)

I'm not sure the SDLP winding up together with the UUP is entirely a bad thing. I can see a couple of advantages to it... one is virtually certain; the other, prospective, but nevertheless...

First of all, if the UUP needs the SDLP to keep it supplied with oxygen, then it's going to be more moderate. If they merge, they'll be the party of centre moderation. Some people will be unionist, some nationalist, but within the same party... and that will, necessarily, be a party of day-to-day issues, not Constitutional Big Questions™ as most parties are and have to be in NI today. It could be a party that gets on with things, and a way forward for people in general to work together while others sort out the Constitutional Big Questions™.

Secondly, it's just possible that, having breached the divide and having Catholics and Protestants together in the party, the way is open for meetings of minds that could, in a generation or two, deliver a united Ireland... who knows? Blue skies of unionist Ulster today might be the self-same of a unified one tomorrow.

New times, New approach said...

Hopefully this analysis is correct. What is most worrying is that a few crumbs from the Unionist table appeared to have been felt worthy of consideration by the SDLP at all; and thankfully it is not now led by McDonnell or they would by now be in full scale negotiation for a whole tempting slice of stale bread.

The SDLP, like their predecessors, the Nationalist party, were always as happy with full collaboration as the Vichy government had been, with the distinction that at least that regime got to take some of the minor bureaucratic decisions.
If Margaret Ritchie proves to be a new broom in pursuing their reaffirmed republican credentials then hopefully she will have the gumption to see that a different type of political coalition (as the junior partner of course) is the only tactic that will be of the least use in achieving their objective.

Paddy, We must bear in mind that N. Ireland is in a very transient state at the moment and it's future can and will change radically during our lifetimes. Consequently I think political objectives should focus more on the medium to long term rather than on short term accommodations to ameliorate current circumstances.

Anonymous said...

Laughable analysis. The SDLP is dead in the water. The future in NI is three parties - a left wing unionist party (UK Labour or local), a right wing unionist party (UK Conservative or local) and an Irish Nationalist party (almost certainly SF). The SDLP should nail it's colors to the mast and declare itself both socialist and small 'u' unionist. Initially this will mean that the hard 'green' elements will leave, as will the 'pious' RC elements. But it will, as a result absorb The Alliance Party vote and The PUP (probably as a whole). Over time it will be able to shape the future of the left in Ulster.

Has it got the guts?

Nordie Northsider said...

'The SDLP should nail it's colors to the mast and declare itself both socialist and small 'u' unionist...'

There's one small problem with that: they aren't unionists (or Unionists either).

Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter NN. They have absolutely no chance of clawing back SF's lead. SF have complete ownership of the younger Nationalist vote and there is absolutely nothing to suggest they will lose it. In fact, as PIRA violence fades into the distant past I suspect their lead will increase.

There is absolutely no chance of a United Ireland in the next twenty years or so, nor will it draw any closer (certainly not constitutionally). After that? Well, who the hell knows? Perhaps The ROI will rejoin The UK or perhaps the world will explode?

What are The SDLP going to do in the mean time? Well I'll tell you what they'll do if they don't change track radically - they'll disappear of the face of the earth.

Two choices, compete with SF for the 'green' vote (guaranteed to lose without any doubt whatsoever) or strike out in a new direction. As a socialist party (actually socialist - not the sham they present now) supporting abortion rights for women and all the other traditional left wing party platforms, combined with an anti-sectarian unionist position they will be in a position to take 30% of the vote in the long term (with 30% for a right wing unionist party and 40% for an Irish Nationalist party). As UK Labour's local party they will have all the advantages that that will present including possible representation in The UK Government itself.

The alternative is irrelevance and death.

Paddy Canuck said...

"They have absolutely no chance of clawing back SF's lead."

Yeah, but given their stripe, wouldn't the more likely course be to vanish into Sinn Fein than to convert wholesale to something they've been at odds with for forty or fifty years? After all, there's ALREADY a UUP, and it's in trouble. The constituency issues are confusing. I mean, I know there must have been others, but the only Protestant SDLPer who springs to mind for me is Ivan Cooper, and even he's a nationalist (hence his membership in the party).

Anonymous said...

Bringing the Minor Party back in from the cold as junior piece in pan-nationalist jigsaw? Once upon a time it might have mattered who the SDLP elected as their leader.

Paddy Canuck said...

"Perhaps The ROI will rejoin The UK"

It's hard to imagine a circumstance where that would happen given the past century... I think if Home Rule had come about before WWI, Ireland would probably still be in the UK, though in a grumbly way like Scotland. But too much bad stuff's happened since.

Mind you, if the UK changed in substantial constitutional ways... like became a loose republic with more devolved powers to the constituent countries, who knows what Irish people, heeled by another few generations, might be willing to consider?

What about the SDLP merging with FF, BTW?

Paddy Canuck said...

Er, rather, healed by another few generations. Heel, you Irish setters, heel! :)

Paddy Matthews said...

The SDLP should nail it's colors to the mast and declare itself both socialist and small 'u' unionist. Initially this will mean that the hard 'green' elements will leave, as will the 'pious' RC elements. But it will, as a result absorb The Alliance Party vote and The PUP (probably as a whole).

A surefire path to oblivion for the SDLP. Alliance have about 7% of the vote, not all of which is left-wing, and even less of which is hard left-wing, and the PUP manage about 1%. In the process, the explicit unionism you advocate it to adopt would alienate almost all of their existing vote.

As a socialist party (actually socialist - not the sham they present now) supporting abortion rights for women and all the other traditional left wing party platforms, combined with an anti-sectarian unionist position

The Workers' Party tried hard left-wing socialism along with anti-sectarianism and downplayed its nationalism over the years, and went absolutely nowhere with it. Why would this time be different?

Anonymous said...

Paddy Canuck said:

"Yeah, but given their stripe, wouldn't the more likely course be to vanish into Sinn Fein than to convert wholesale to something they've been at odds with for forty or fifty years? After all, there's ALREADY a UUP, and it's in trouble. The constituency issues are confusing. I mean, I know there must have been others, but the only Protestant SDLPer who springs to mind for me is Ivan Cooper, and even he's a nationalist (hence his membership in the party)."

I think you're in some confusion over The SDLP/UUP situation. These two parties are not only opposed on the border issue, but ALSO on the left/right spectrum. There is absolutely no chance of these two parties merging. They might, of course, form a cross community opposition to SF/DUP - in fact it might be better for Ulster if only the largest Nationalist/Unionist parties formed a government with everyone else in opposition, but this would require an agreed change to The Belfast Agreement.

The reality is that sectarian politics in Ulster is not going to last for ever. Ultimately there will be a realignment with a left wing unionist party (probably UK Labour) becoming part of the new reality. The SDLP might as well start the ball rolling now.

Anonymous said...

FAO Paddy Canuck:

As regards your question about the SDLP merging with FF, this could happen, but what would it gain? SF in Ulster would wipe the floor with either The SDLP or FF. FF would be seen as a 'Free State' party, especially by young Nationalists and a 'Johny come lately'. In twenty years time there will only be one Nationalist party in Ulster and it will be SF. It will never achieve more than 40% of the vote.

There will be two unionist parties and I suspect their names will be Labour and Conservative.

Anonymous said...

Dont think so!

Paddy Canuck said...

"I think you're in some confusion over The SDLP/UUP situation. These two parties are not only opposed on the border issue, but ALSO on the left/right spectrum. There is absolutely no chance of these two parties merging."

Well, no; that's what I was getting at. I can't see what common ground they have except they're both closer to the middle than either the DUP or SF. But it seems to me that the more natural home for a failing SDLP is SF, and the DUP for the fading UUP. Though, as I said, it would be wonderful to see someone straddle the fence and give every moderate the same middle option to vote for...

Anonymous said...

Paddy Mathews said:

"A surefire path to oblivion for the SDLP. Alliance have about 7% of the vote, not all of which is left-wing, and even less of which is hard left-wing, and the PUP manage about 1%. In the process, the explicit unionism you advocate it to adopt would alienate almost all of their existing vote.

The Workers' Party tried hard left-wing socialism along with anti-sectarianism and downplayed its nationalism over the years, and went absolutely nowhere with it. Why would this time be different?"

Take the border out of things for the moment and consider this: The two largest parties in NI are completely unrepresentative of the larger community - one party is riddled with ex-terrorists and their supporters and the other has a membership comprising those associated with a fringe fundamentalist church. The reality is that the people of Ulster are as broad a church as any other community in The UK. Opinion polls show that at least a third (probably more) of Ulster Catholics have no interest in Irish Unity. This means that Nationalists in Ulster probably number no more than 30% of the population. Said Nationalists are probably also left wing (as in Scotland and Wales). These people are catered for by SF - why do they need The SDLP? Now, as regards the 70% of the population who are satisfied with The Union as it is, who do they have to represent them? Only right wing Unionist parties. There is definitely a place for a left of centre unionist party capable of drawing on at least 30% of the vote. The SDLP could form the initial nucleus of such a party.

At some point NI is going to switch to UK standards of democracy in the assembly. When this happens the socialist unionist party I'm describing will be able to form a left wing alliance with the Irish Nationalist Party (SF?) or a pro-union alliance with the right wing unionist party (Conservative?). It will be pivotal. I would suggest that NI is more left wing than England (as is Scotland and Wales) without the border as an issue.

As regards the failure of The Workers Party, I would suggest the following reasons:

(i) Too left wing.
(ii) Associated with paramilitaries.
(iii) Looked south rather than east.
(iv) The wrong time!

Anonymous said...

The list of parties who have tried and failed to ignore the border and focus on bread and butter issues in Northern Ireland is longer than Tiger Wood's list of conquests. Eamonn McCann has made a living writing about these failed attempts, his own included. Every time Ulstermen align themselves along economic/class lines, it falls apart straight away due to distrust of themuns' motives.

If native Ulstermen can't do it, the British Labour and Conservative Parties haven't a hope in Hell. Until everyone is satisfied with the border issue, Nationalists and Unionists aren't going to spontaneously set aside their grievances and come together. Some of the commenters on this blog have heard this titbit somewhere and are repeating it, mantra like, conveniently ignoring the fact that everything since 1798 has indicated the tendency to go in the opposite direction.

Left wing Protestants go into the polling booth and stand next to young earth creationists and vote DUP. Atheist Marxists on the Falls stand next to devout Catholics and vote SF. Everything is secondary to the border dispute. It is possible that as the tipping point approaches where Irish Nationalists will have the potential to control the entire island for the first time in 800 years, they will start voting for British "small u" Unionist Parties. Unlikely, but anything's possible.

Paddy Canuck said...

"It is possible that as the tipping point approaches where Irish Nationalists will have the potential to control the entire island for the first time in 800 years, they will start voting for British "small u" Unionist Parties. Unlikely, but anything's possible."

This is a very interesting (and nicely-put) analysis. So what do you project will actually start happening, in practical terms, if and when Northern Ireland is routinely putting SF at the top of the heap?

peteram79 said...

Yet more of the Stoops trying to out-green the Scummers - when will they learn? Ritchie appears to be an absolute clown, her apearance on Question Time a few weeks back was cringeworthily awful. Hopefully she wi lbe the SDLP equivalent of Iain Duncan-Smith, the last roll of the SDLP's failed Nationalist dice, before they actually wake up to where they can make electoral progress and rebrand as a moderate socialist party with their border preference moved almost entirely off the agenda (as it is for the majority of their core voters)

Paddy Matthews said...

Opinion polls show that at least a third (probably more) of Ulster Catholics have no interest in Irish Unity.

What opinion polls in Northern Ireland measure is what people feel it wise to say to a total stranger about politics.

They bear no relation to actual election results on either side of the political/national identity divide.

There is definitely a place for a left of centre unionist party capable of drawing on at least 30% of the vote. The SDLP could form the initial nucleus of such a party.

Let's suppose that your fantasy comes true and the SDLP break out the Union Jacks and start belting out GSTQ.

Why would unionists, even left-of-centre ones, consider voting for a former nationalist party which had done a 180-degree turn, any more than they did for the Workers' Party?

According to the same opinion polls that you give such credence to, 1% (one per cent) of Catholics consider themselves to be Unionist.

If there's going to be a left-wing unionist party, then it's up to left-wing unionists to construct it.

At some point NI is going to switch to UK standards of democracy in the assembly.

...

(Usual British integrationist fantasies deleted)



Unionist integrationists really need to get it into their heads that those people who vote for the SDLP or Sinn Féin have just as fully-formed a sense of national identity as they do.

They consider themselves to be Irish. They don't identify with British symbolism or British national identity. You're not going to succeed in converting them at this stage.

What you have to do (and this applies to Irish nationalists just as much as to British ones) is to construct a society that respects both identities, regardless of whether it forms part of a United Kingdom or a United Ireland.

Paddy Canuck said...

Hey, Hearsay Pete's back. :)

"a moderate socialist party with their border preference moved almost entirely off the agenda (as it is for the majority of their core voters)"

What, BOTH of them? That must be why SF's been eating their lunch for the past 15 years or so. :)

Anonymous said...

Paddy Matthews Said:

"What opinion polls in Northern Ireland measure is what people feel it wise to say to a total stranger about politics."

I've heard this argument before from those Nationalists who feel deeply uncomfortable about what Catholics in NI tell pollsters. The problem I have with this, is that it would be much safer for a Catholic in a Republican ghetto to over state their support for a UI rather than claim to oppose it. In any case, I understand the way politics work and how uncomfortable facts need to be challenged.

"Let's suppose that your fantasy comes true and the SDLP break out the Union Jacks and start belting out GSTQ. Why would unionists, even left-of-centre ones, consider voting for a former nationalist party which had done a 180-degree turn, any more than they did for the Workers' Party?"

I don't envisage a left of centre unionist party breaking out UJs in Ulster any more than they do in Scotland or Wales. Even The UK Conservative party is not so boisterous these days. As for socialist unionists, they do exist and I suspect they would vote for a main stream socialist party (with no paramilitary past). Initially support might be low, but over time support would grow.

"According to the same opinion polls that you give such credence to, 1% (one per cent) of Catholics consider themselves to be Unionist."

I think it's important to distinguish between Catholics who support the union (a fair number) and those who would vote for a traditional ULSTER Unionist Party ("The Sash My Father Wore"). There is a difference.

"If there's going to be a left-wing unionist party, then it's up to left-wing unionists to construct it."

No, it's not. Catholic unionists (NOT Unionists) are not represented at the moment and they are a substantial number.

"Unionist integrationists really need to get it into their heads that those people who vote for the SDLP or Sinn Féin have just as fully-formed a sense of national identity as they do."

Oh, I'm sure that's the case. Of course 40% of Catholics don't vote do they? In any case, one can belong to The Ulster Irish tribe with all that entails without supporting Irish Unity.

"What you have to do (and this applies to Irish nationalists just as much as to British ones) is to construct a society that respects both identities, regardless of whether it forms part of a United Kingdom or a United Ireland."

OK, let's get down to brass tacks. In my opinion the likelihood of a United Ireland in the next twenty years is next to nothing. The ROI can't afford NI and The UK can - simple as that. There is no chance of NI's economy generating the necessary wealth to bridge the gap and no chance of The UK cutting the purse strings. The politicians in The ROI do not want a million Unionists pushed into their state with all that would entail. Bar room Republicans might think the threat of Loyalist violence is low, but The Irish Government know the reality. There are other reasons, but I won't prolong my thesis.

This leaves the reality of NI firmly within The UK for at least the next twenty years and probably indefinitely. This will apply regardless of the relative size of the two communities (likely to stabilise at close enough to parity).

So, the choice is to continue with the Ulster Irish and The Ulster British power sharing as now with The UK calling the shots and paying the bills. I can live with this (although, I'd like to see the number of parasites involved scaled back).

Alternatively, there is the option of Labour and Conservative parties standing in Ulster with the hope that sectarian/tribal politics can be rolled back. This I would favour. There could still be an assembly of sorts, as in Wales.

Remember, cultural and religious identities would still exist, as in Scotland and Wales, but they would no longer control the political process.

peteram79 said...

I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt, Paddy, that you haven't gone back to the comments section on the "McDonald breaks some eggs" before posting that.

Paddy Canuck said...

"I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt, Paddy, that you haven't gone back to the comments section on the "McDonald breaks some eggs" before posting that."

Ditto, Pete.

Paddy Matthews said...

The problem I have with this, is that it would be much safer for a Catholic in a Republican ghetto to over state their support for a UI rather than claim to oppose it.

The problem with that particular argument is that there's no sign of Catholics expressing their support for unionists (or even in any great numbers for non-nationalist parties such as Alliance) when it comes to the even more confidential ballot box - even amongst the majority who don't live in "republican ghettoes".

As for socialist unionists, they do exist and I suspect they would vote for a main stream socialist party (with no paramilitary past). Initially support might be low, but over time support would grow.

Oh, I'm sure they exist - though I doubt the number is anywhere near as large as you think - but I don't see why they're going to flock to an ex-nationalist party (always assuming your fantasy comes true).

A better option would be to build a base from the NI branch of the British Labour Party (Boyd Black et al) and see how far you get. Of course, that would involve a hard slog.

No, it's not. Catholic unionists (NOT Unionists) are not represented at the moment and they are a substantial number.

<shakes head>

NI Life and Times Survey - 2008: UNINATID

"Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a unionist, a nationalist or neither?

Results for people of different religions

Catholic %

Unionist 1
Nationalist 48
Neither 50
Other 0
Don't Know 1"

There may well be a large number of Catholics who choose not to define themselves as Nationalists (the previous caveats about NI opinion polls being borne in mind) but that is not the same thing as being Unionist.

Oh, I'm sure that's the case. Of course 40% of Catholics don't vote do they? In any case, one can belong to The Ulster Irish tribe with all that entails without supporting Irish Unity.

What percentage of Protestants don't vote? What assumptions do you make about their views?

Bar room Republicans might think the threat of Loyalist violence is low, but The Irish Government know the reality.

It doesn't take much for the threat of Loyalist violence to come to the surface, does it? I'm sure you wouldn't dirty your own hands, of course.

After all, it's not as if fear of what the "law-abiding" community would resort to if actually outvoted on partition would be a reason for ambivalence to a United Ireland among Catholics, would it? Instead, it's their secret Unionism - the love that dare not speak its name.

Alternatively, there is the option of Labour and Conservative parties standing in Ulster with the hope that sectarian/tribal politics can be rolled back. This I would favour. There could still be an assembly of sorts, as in Wales.

Remember, cultural and religious identities would still exist, as in Scotland and Wales, but they would no longer control the political process.


I see. So as long as the Nationalists learn to know their place, there will be no need to get those boys in dark glasses on the corner to put manners on them. Lovely.

Anonymous said...

Paddy Matthews said:

"The problem with that particular argument is that there's no sign of Catholics expressing their support for unionists (or even in any great numbers for non-nationalist parties such as Alliance) when it comes to the even more confidential ballot box - even amongst the majority who don't live in "republican ghettoes"

I don't expect Catholics to express their support for Unionism (a tribal identity) in normal elections, but I do expect a fair proportion of them to reject Irish Unity in any border poll.

"NI Life and Times Survey - 2008: UNINATID

"Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a unionist, a nationalist or neither?

Results for people of different religions

Catholic %

Unionist 1
Nationalist 48
Neither 50
Other 0
Don't Know 1"

There may well be a large number of Catholics who choose not to define themselves as Nationalists (the previous caveats about NI opinion polls being borne in mind) but that is not the same thing as being Unionist."

We are in complete agreement on that. As I have said above, the term Unionist (or Nationalist for that matter) has a clear tribal resonance in NI. This blog's thesis ignores this fact and assumes that Catholics are almost completely homogeneous in their support for Irish Unity. As we speak, this is complete and utter rubbish.

"What percentage of Protestants don't vote? What assumptions do you make about their views?"

Well using the site you recommend (2008/Protestant figures):

What do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be?

To remain part of the United Kingdom, with direct rule: 24%
To remain part of the United Kingdom, with devolved government: 65%
To reunify with the rest of Ireland: 4%
Independent state: 3%
Other answer: 1%
Don't know: 2%

So, only 4% of Protestants support Irish Unity. 40% of Protestants don't vote, so it's safe to assume most Protestant non-voters are opposed to Irish Unity. I suspect many of these people would vote against Irish Unity in any border poll, given the fact that a UI would turn their lives upside down.

"It doesn't take much for the threat of Loyalist violence to come to the surface, does it? I'm sure you wouldn't dirty your own hands, of course."

Actually, I'm opposed to violence (in most cases), as I'm sure you are. But this isn't about me is it? The Irish state will make it's own assessment on the likelihood of Loyalist militancy in the event of any attempt to impose Irish Unity. And no, they won't be asking any bar room Republicans for their input. LOL

"After all, it's not as if fear of what the "law-abiding" community would resort to if actually outvoted on partition would be a reason for ambivalence to a United Ireland among Catholics, would it? Instead, it's their secret Unionism - the love that dare not speak its name."

No, I'm sure some Catholics do oppose Irish Unity on the grounds that it will inflame Loyalist militancy. After all, they'd be in the direct firing line. Perhaps you'd better do an opinion poll.

"I see. So as long as the Nationalists learn to know their place, there will be no need to get those boys in dark glasses on the corner to put manners on them. Lovely."

That's certainly not what I've said - far from it. As for 'men in dark glasses', currently the only ones active fly your flag and pursue your cause, don't they?

Anonymous said...

"Paddy Canuck said...

So what do you project will actually start happening, in practical terms, if and when Northern Ireland is routinely putting SF at the top of the heap?"

I think the urgency for a UI might wane a tad; though the desire won't. That is, when Nationalists control Stormont my feeling is they'll go for a UI "when the time is right" rather than ASAP. I'd imagine Stormont controlled by the SDLP/SF would prefer a smooth, gradual handover. Who in their right mind wouldn't? Apart from dissident lunatics who still harbour crazy fantasies of the last British soldiers getting airlifted from the embassy, Vietnam style.

Re: the Catholic unionists who keep cropping up in the discussions here, I think the reason why people here find it so hard to swallow is that they've never met any.

I've lived in Dublin, Belfast and Derry over the years, and have colleagues and friends from all over Ulster. I can honestly say I've never met a "Catholic unionist."

I do know Catholics who take a dander in to watch the parades, especially if they have friends in the bands. People in my own family included. I have family who served in the British Army, and a couple of old (RC) buddies from Uni who have joined the PSNI.

But RCs who want to stay in the U.K.? I can honestly say I don't know any. I'm anonymous here, I have no reason to lie. I don't come to this blog to dent the morale of the handful of unionists who come here to argue their case (more power to them btw.) If unionists were up to a third of Rcs, that's almost a sixth of the population of N.I! Where are they all? It can't all be fear of assassination, the police and have growing numbers of RCs all the time.

I'd love to read a few of their interviews; there is a real gap in the knowledge in the public domain here. A possible University Thesis for someone perhaps?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said:

"I think the urgency for a UI might wane a tad; though the desire won't. That is, when Nationalists control Stormont my feeling is they'll go for a UI "when the time is right" rather than ASAP. I'd imagine Stormont controlled by the SDLP/SF would prefer a smooth, gradual handover. Who in their right mind wouldn't? Apart from dissident lunatics who still harbour crazy fantasies of the last British soldiers getting airlifted from the embassy, Vietnam style."

SDLP/SF can't 'control' Stormount at any time in the future even if they hold 90% of the seats - there's a double veto system in place.

"But RCs who want to stay in the U.K.? I can honestly say I don't know any. I'm anonymous here, I have no reason to lie. I don't come to this blog to dent the morale of the handful of unionists who come here to argue their case (more power to them btw.) If unionists were up to a third of Rcs, that's almost a sixth of the population of N.I! Where are they all?"

I agree, it would be nice to know why Catholics keep telling pollsters they don't want a UI. My only explanation is that they actually don't. But I agree it would be nice to see a break down of their reasons.

Perhaps Horseman could look into this issue in more detail and publish some findings.

Anonymous said...

"SDLP/SF can't 'control' Stormount at any time in the future even if they hold 90% of the seats - there's a double veto system in place. "

Of course; my choice of words was bad. I'm sure you know what I meant.

"I agree, it would be nice to know why Catholics keep telling pollsters they don't want a UI. My only explanation is that they actually don't. But I agree it would be nice to see a break down of their reasons. "

More study of this phenomena would be nice. I'm even more curious to know why Unionists put so much stock in opinion polls though. In the US they call it the "Bradley Effect"; closer to home we have the "Shy Tory Effect". It's well known people fib to opinion pollsters; google "Spiral of Silence."

Northern Ireland seems to be the only place where the opinion polls are assumed to be more representative of the public mood than what people do in the privacy of the polling booth.

Why some people insist on not believing this baffles me.

Anonymous said...

nice post. thanks.