Monday 3 May 2010

Paddy Power shows opinion changes

Since last week Paddy Power has recorded some changes in the odds offered in a number of Northern Irish constituencies.

In North Antrim: last week the odds were DUP 4/11, and TUV 15/8; but today they are DUP 1/3 and TUV 2/1. This shows a slight swing in the mind of the punter further towards the DUP.

In South Antrim the odds have completely changed: last week the odds were DUP 5/6 and UCUNF 5/6. Now the odds are UCUNF 4/6 and DUP 11/10. In other words the punter now thinks that Reg Empey will win.

In North Belfast last week the punter thought that Nigel Dodds was a dead cert: the DUP was at 1/4, and Sinn Féin at 11/4. Now, although Dodds is still ahead, the odds have moved slightly towards Sinn Féin – the DUP are on 2/7, and Sinn Féin are on 5/2.

In South Down Margaret Ritchie has weaked a little: last week she was on 1/9, but now she is on 1/7. Caitriona Ruane has shortened from 5/1 to 4/1. It still leaves the SDLP are clear favourites, of course.

In Fermanagh and South Tyrone last week Rodney Connor was on 8/11, and Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew was on evens. Today it’s Rodney Connor on 8/13 and
Michelle Gildernew on 6/5. That represents a strengthening of Connor’s position.

East Derry shows a different type of swing. A week ago the DUP was on 1/6, and the TUV on 10/1 (UCUNF was on 6/1). Today, though, the DUP has slipped to 2/9, and the TUV has strengthened to 7/1 (UCUNF remain on 6/1). So although Gregory Campbell is still very much the favourite, Willie Ross is catching up – but not fast enough.

In Strangford the DUP was on 4/7 a week ago, UCUNF was on 5/4 and the TUV was on 20/1. Today, though, the DUP is on 2/5, UCUNF is on 7/4, and the TUV is on 25/1. So the DUP is increasing its lead here.

Lastly, in Upper Bann, a week ago the DUP was on 4/7, UCUNF was on 9/4, and Sinn Féin was on 8/1. Now the DUP’s odds have slightly shortened to 8/13, UCUNF’s have shortened to 2/1, and Sinn Féin’s have shortened to 7/1. So although the DUP remain favourite to win, all three major parties see their odds improve slightly.

What does it all mean? In short, most seats will remain in their current hands, except for:
  • South Antrim – Empey to win
  • FST – Connor to win
But several other constituencies become closer and thus more interesting to watch – including North Belfast, South Down, East Derry and Upper Bann. If there are to be surprises, they should be in one or other of these constituencies.

1 comment:

hoboroad said...