Monday 3 May 2010

Swings and roundabouts (the punters' opinion, part 4)

In the absence of reliable opinion polls, the bookies odds have become an invaluable way of gauging voter sentiment in Northern Ireland. Not an infallible way, of course – only betters' opinions are counted, and it's quite likely that few fundamentalist Christians ever darken the doors of a betting shop.

Nonetheless, it’s the only tool available, so for what it's worth, here are some of the small swings that the odds have shown so far:
  • In South Antrim, William Hill is now showing a slight UCUNF advantage – 8/11, with the DUP on evens. Last week both parties were level-pegged at 5/6.
  • In contrast to that, though, William Hill is showing shorter odds for the DUP in Strangford (i.e. they reckon the chance of the DUP winning is better than it was). Last week Jim Shannon was on 8/13, but today that is 1/2. The chances for the UCUNF candidate, Mike Nesbitt, have lengthened from 6/5 to 6/4.
  • In Fermanagh and South Tyrone, William Hill now have Rodney Connor on 8/11, a slight dis-improvement (but a relative improvement) from last week's 5/6. Michelle Gildernew, who was also on 5/6 last week, has slipped back to evens.
Apart from these three constituencies, the odds quoted by William Hill appear unchanged. Tomorrow this blog will look at how Paddy Power sees things evolving.

1 comment:

hoboroad said...

In East Belfast Trevor Ringland spoke, of people's alleged anger and shame, "at an MP who boasts about polishing his halo."

E/Belfast candidate T/Ringland on PR alleged people anger and shame "at an MP who arrogantly refuses to accept he has done anything wrong."

East Belfast UU/Con candidate Trevor Ringland has branded the DUP "the party of cosy relationships with handpicked developers."

Trevor Ringland on Peter Robinson in East Belfast : " This seat is not the property of a party committed to family dynasties."

All of the above taken from Eamon Mallie's Twitter page.