Wednesday 13 May 2009

The bookies still favour de Brún

In February this blog first reported on the odds being offered by bookie Paddy Power on the outcome of the European Parliament election. We promised to return to the subject on and off during the campaign.

Now that the list of candidates is known, and the opening gambits have been played, it might be a good time for another look.

Despite a lot of PR-induced clamour, the situation appears to have changed very little. The odds being offered on the number of votes that Jim Allister will receive have not changed at all. Paddy Power's customers expect him to get between 30,000 and 40,000 votes, exactly as in February.

However, in the book on who will top the poll, the odds have slightly shortened for Sinn Féin's Bairbre de Brún, and lengthened for the DUP's Diane Dodds.

In February de Brún was the bookie's favourite to top the poll with odds of 4-5 (this would mean that on a 10 euro bet, you would receive an 18 euro payout, including your initial stake). Diane Dodds' odds were even (i.e. for your 10 euro you would receive 20 in payout). What this meant was that the bookie reckoned that de Brún was more likely to top the poll than Dodds.

Today, however, the odds on de Brún topping the poll have shortened to 4-6 (the payout thus drops to 16.67 euro on a 10 euro take). Dodds' odds have lengthened to 11-10 (increasing the possible payout o 21 euro). This represents an increase in the betters' belief that de Brún will top the poll, and a decrease in their faith in Dodds.

The bad news for the UUP (dressed up as UCUNF) is that all their spin has not changed the punters' opinion of their candidate's chances of topping the poll. 14-1 in February and still 14-1 today. Likewise for the SDLP, Greens and Alliance candidates – there has been no change (and probably no bets placed) since February. It seems the only real competition is between de Brún and Dodds.

21 comments:

hoboroad said...

How will the current problem of Lady Sylvia V Reg Empey effect the Jim Nicolson vote.

Horseman said...

Badly, hoboroad, but it's hard to say how badly.

hoboroad said...

I thought so what is it about Unionist's always at each other.How can they call for a United Kingdom when they do not have a United party.I think since the Irish Republican Army ceasefire they have lost the run of themselves.Was smiling Jim right after the IRA called its first ceasefire.

hoboroad said...

And we are still waiting for the DUP's mps expenses claims.I suppose the Daily Telegraph are leaving the best to last.

O'Neill said...

Patience hoboroad, all will (or maybe not?) be revealed tomorrow;)

hoboroad said...

Is it true that tomorrows edition of the Telegraph is to be a married mp's expenses special.

Seymour Major said...

Its a sad fact in Northern Ireland that we dont get to see opinion polls. We are reduced to looking at Bookies odds!

Horseman said...

That's probably for the better, though, Seymour. People have a terible tendency to lie to pollsters, whereas when its a question of their money, they'll call it like they actually see it. There isn't a great incentive to lie to the bookie.

hoboroad said...

Tomorrow's Daily Telegraph should be fun if your name is not Peter or Iris Robinson that is.

hoboroad said...

£30,000 pounds over 4 years for food is what the Robinson family claimed.

hoboroad said...

What about the UDA erecting UCUNF posters in North Belfast?Where is David Cameron standing on this?A loyalist murder gang supporting you and expect respectable Catholics to support you.

hoboroad said...

The UUP CHAIRMAN IN NORTH DOWN HAS RESIGNED AND JOINED THE DUP

Anonymous said...

Are you on strike, Horseman? I miss this blog when it goes inactive. Your piece on Monaghan 1861-1911 was fascinating.

Naomh Brid Abu said...

Horseman

I note Paddy Power's asessment of Uncle Jim's vote-pulling power has shifted upwards somewhat. Lowest odds on offer at 2/1 for 60,000+ votes! A worrying prospect if borne out in reality for the new Tory/UUP unpronounceable party. The Dodds dynasty could forget about topping the poll if the damage were anywhere on that scale.

Naomh Brid Abu

hoboroad said...

Jim allister has some big billboard posters out and about.The unionist anger with Peter Punt must be great the DUP have kids handing out election flyers door to door.

Anonymous said...

Cold Turkey is HELL.

Horseman said...

Anonymous,

Are you on strike, Horseman?No, holiday! And in a place without Wifi ... it was cold turkey for me too. But the sun helped!

Anonymous said...

Oh well - I don't suppose we can begrudge you a holiday. As long as you're back at your desk for the election results. Keep up the good work and >!@@ the begrudgers.

hoboroad said...

Great to have you back Horseman!Hope normal service is resumed very soon.The euro election result could be interesting looking forward to your usual sharp comment.

Anonymous said...

Great work horseman, A great blog and a great read

hoboroad said...

Come on Horseman lets make this the biggest and most popular Blog ever.Slugger and ATW better watch out there is a new game in Town.