Tuesday 27 April 2010

The punters' opinion (part 3)

In addition to Paddy Power and William Hill, also Ladbrokes offer odds on the outcome of the Westminster election in each constituency.

The main difference compared with the others is that Ladbrokes see UCUNF taking South Antrim (8/11, while the DUP is evens).

Ladbrokes have taken the trouble to identify the independent candidates (unlike William Hill, who call them all ('TUV').

So all three main bookies (or rather their customers) share a consensus on most of the constituencies:
  • The DUP will retain North Antrim, East Antrim, East Belfast, North Belfast, Lagan Valley, East Derry, Strangford and Upper Bann.
  • Sinn Féin will retain West Belfast, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone.
  • The SDLP will retain all three of their current seats.
  • Sylvia Hermon will easily retain North Down.
  • South Antrim and Fermanagh and South Tyrone will be close – there are no clear favourites yet.
The whole election in Northern Ireland, at this point, and according to the combined wisdom of the betting class, is thus really about two seats. In South Antrim UCUNF faces its Waterloo – failure to win will consign them to the dustbin of history. A narrow victory will see them clinging on, alive but not thriving. In FST the UCUNF project lost a wheel, but if Connor wins the seat for the Protestants (sorry, that should be "for the unionists") then UCUNF will claim it as a victory. But at present Connor is not a shoe-in.

Unless the odds change, May 7 could see all 18 of Northern Ireland's constituencies in exactly the same hands as they are in today. At the most, probably only two constituencies will change hands.


Anonymous said...

Traditionally going back to the earliest days of organised leagl gambling here (which of course predates English betting shops circa 1960), Bookmaking was held to be a "Catholic" trade (as was owning a pub).
Id tend to think that the majority of regular punters would be from a Catholic background.
With the value bets in FST and South Belfast, this might be bad news for Gildernew and McDonnell.

Ronzer said...

Hi Horseman.

There is a tread you might be interested in on Politics.ie at the moment - it is a tread about re-partition started by a Unionist poster.

Some of he maps he posted, drawn by himself, are interesting - very similar to one i have seen here (in style I mean - where he would put the boundary is quite different!).


Anonymous said...

Hi Ronzer,

That idiot is taking the p*ss!

And he wants a grown up debate.

Repartition is a non runner in any circumstances.

MPG .....

Anonymous said...

Sammy Mc Nally,

offloading Cavan in return for Armagh might be a runner.